Stocks · resolved market
Will Apple (AAPL) Q3 Mac revenue be above $8.5B?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55aab74253a21952a3599289a54246fe38f2a0eb1354db8a197c64b9507dc1b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,785
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,716
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,785 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked No | 23c | 388.45$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.58 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 54cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed No | 26c | 366.35$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.84 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59b8…11a5backed Yes | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…7feabacked No | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6d…ed0bbacked Yes | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd376…231dbacked Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 138 | 15.9%22 W · 116 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc6…36f2backed Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 35c | 38.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed Yes | 76c | 27.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…3ff9backed Yes | 79c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 78c | 20.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b85…8363backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 67cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf48…1751backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb96b…ddefbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3726…4ad4backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…743ebacked Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 62cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc91e…07ddbacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 70cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Apple (AAPL) Q3 Mac revenue be above $8.5B?this page
- Will Apple (AAPL) Q3 Mac revenue be above $10B?Yes won
- Will Apple (AAPL) Q3 Mac revenue be above $9.5B?Yes won
- Will Apple (AAPL) Q3 Mac revenue be above $9B?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.