Stocks · resolved market
Will Apple (AAPL) Q3 Mac revenue be above $9B?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a167b91c54a5eaf46f288252ac3f3854a98f9c2282adb9a855b3cd7277d527e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,326
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,142
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,326 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4388…5050backed No | 58c | 410.9$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.31 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8469…dab0backed Yes | 26c | 365.97$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 42c | 268.02$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.45 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 39c | 238.64$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.64 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x227d…901abacked No | 66c | 188.86$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.74 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked No | 41c | 176$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.02 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 54cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fa…7be3backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +141.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 78c | 80$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 138 | 15.9%22 W · 116 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…743ebacked No | 77c | 80$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 62cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…7feabacked Yes | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7eb…275cbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +229.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3726…4ad4backed Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…12adbacked Yes | 77c | 31.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +83.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 33c | 31.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 293 | 23.2%68 W · 225 L | -31.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd11a…5ffdbacked No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 42c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46cc…3097backed Yes | 59c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…3ff9backed Yes | 59c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbd…20a4backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +2,158.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 65c | 18.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | -5.5wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Apple (AAPL) Q3 Mac revenue be above $9B?this page
- Will Apple (AAPL) Q3 Mac revenue be above $10B?Yes won
- Will Apple (AAPL) Q3 Mac revenue be above $8.5B?Yes won
- Will Apple (AAPL) Q3 Mac revenue be above $9.5B?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.