Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Jay Feely win the AZ-01 Republican primary by 20–25%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4618f72f5dbe010ef9f9445f8bec995b7d1eb866b48d114b4a1756fb2fd25f00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,113
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,141
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,113 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked No | 50c | 777.82$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.9 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5169…0455backed Yes | 28c | 461$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 4c | 351.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 106 | 22.6%24 W · 82 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 73c | 260.67$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.38 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 39c | 200$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.1 | 314 | 34.1%107 W · 207 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 7c | 191.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 182 | 3.8%7 W · 175 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 15c | 161$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 494 | 11.5%57 W · 437 L | -17.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 50c | 151$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.8 | 122 | 31.1%38 W · 84 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…0439backed No | 71c | 120$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.6 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 45c | 95.02$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.77 | 449 | 35.2%158 W · 291 L | -37.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 50c | 84$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.17 | 68 | 26.5%18 W · 50 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 44c | 74.55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…7feabacked Yes | 50c | 58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 73c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764a…83d3backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 50c | 43.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 73 | 24.7%18 W · 55 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 49c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 59c | 21.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…2ad3backed No | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 160 | 20.6%33 W · 127 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2b…b082backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x257b…d288backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3406…6ce0backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…3998backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…2aafbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd967…4bc2backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed No | 73c | 18.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +9.9wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jay Feely win the AZ-01 Republican primary by 20–25%?this page
- Will Jay Feely win the AZ-01 Republican primary by 10–15%?Yes won
- Will Jay Feely win the AZ-01 Republican primary by 15–20%?No won
- Will Jay Feely win the AZ-01 Republican primary by 5–10%?No won
- Will Jay Feely win the AZ-01 Republican primary by at least 25%?No won
- Will Jay Feely win the AZ-01 Republican primary by less than 5%?No won
- Will Joseph Chaplik win the AZ-01 Republican primary by 5–10%?No won
- Will Joseph Chaplik win the AZ-01 Republican primary by less than 5%?No won
- Will Joseph Chaplik win the AZ-01 Republican primary by more than 10%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.