Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Jay Feely win the AZ-01 Republican primary by 15–20%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x698cef36f10044e78eef732f325a559d87329d64ae2d9acebe7630fa58ce3f57
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,081
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,234
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,081 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd8df…ec75backed Yes | 14c | 894.77$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b89…e155backed Yes | 25c | 858.23$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 53c | 381.27$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.75 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +18.5wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 17c | 348.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.72 | 107 | 22.4%24 W · 83 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 28c | 300$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.45 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 51c | 259.98$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.27 | 182 | 37.4%68 W · 114 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 80c | 247.64$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.95 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 5c | 244.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 182 | 3.8%7 W · 175 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 79c | 236.15$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.42 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 19c | 193$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 76c | 150$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.13 | 131 | 43.5%57 W · 74 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 28c | 140$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 154 | 31.2%48 W · 106 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 73c | 83$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9362…d4a4backed Yes | 28c | 79.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 68c | 78.9$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…c360backed Yes | 16c | 77.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed Yes | 27c | 76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 37c | 75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.55 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 29c | 56.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 22c | 54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b85…8363backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 68 | 26.5%18 W · 50 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 95 | 78.9%75 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 74cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1583…bddebacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc713…491dbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae9…14febacked No | 67c | 15.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jay Feely win the AZ-01 Republican primary by 15–20%?this page
- Will Jay Feely win the AZ-01 Republican primary by 10–15%?Yes won
- Will Jay Feely win the AZ-01 Republican primary by 20–25%?No won
- Will Jay Feely win the AZ-01 Republican primary by 5–10%?No won
- Will Jay Feely win the AZ-01 Republican primary by at least 25%?No won
- Will Jay Feely win the AZ-01 Republican primary by less than 5%?No won
- Will Joseph Chaplik win the AZ-01 Republican primary by 5–10%?No won
- Will Joseph Chaplik win the AZ-01 Republican primary by less than 5%?No won
- Will Joseph Chaplik win the AZ-01 Republican primary by more than 10%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.