Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Jay Feely win the AZ-01 Republican primary by 10–15%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28cbf49a383112df7c6f0e0ed38ae4eddc3f12c3791476eca9cd9a0b1388ef44
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,527
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,548
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,527 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 76c | 2,820$2,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.84 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +18.5wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 13c | 398$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.69 | 102 | 45.1%46 W · 56 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd403…a817backed No | 29c | 300$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 9c | 260.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 54c | 259.75$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.35 | 182 | 37.4%68 W · 114 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x054d…97c5backed Yes | 18c | 255.73$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.81 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +7.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 49c | 230$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.27 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 49c | 170$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.79 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 64c | 150$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.57 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 37c | 124.31$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.45 | 107 | 22.4%24 W · 83 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 40c | 117$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2107…8a8abacked No | 28c | 99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…be4dbacked No | 30c | 93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 41c | 93$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.89 | 131 | 43.5%57 W · 74 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6071…e933backed Yes | 65c | 86.9$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.7 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.20per pick | 39cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 78c | 85.86$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.11 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…c360backed No | 20c | 80.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 35c | 78.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jay Feely win the AZ-01 Republican primary by 10–15%?this page
- Will Jay Feely win the AZ-01 Republican primary by 15–20%?No won
- Will Jay Feely win the AZ-01 Republican primary by 20–25%?No won
- Will Jay Feely win the AZ-01 Republican primary by 5–10%?No won
- Will Jay Feely win the AZ-01 Republican primary by at least 25%?No won
- Will Jay Feely win the AZ-01 Republican primary by less than 5%?No won
- Will Joseph Chaplik win the AZ-01 Republican primary by 5–10%?No won
- Will Joseph Chaplik win the AZ-01 Republican primary by less than 5%?No won
- Will Joseph Chaplik win the AZ-01 Republican primary by more than 10%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.