Earnings · resolved market
Will USA Today (TDAY) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf72ff3d55caec8a37eb129f22d36410743e420c0b09dfd2fac36ce758b578ad3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,349
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,578
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,349 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 32c | 1,750$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.44 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed No | 31c | 1,473$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.67 | 342 | 37.1%127 W · 215 L | +21.4wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ee…cc59backed Yes | 69c | 1,176$807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.38 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 56c | 917.68$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.16 | 760 | 37.6%286 W · 474 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 63c | 693.82$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.55 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked Yes | 70c | 350$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.35 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d59…f7e5backed Yes | 59c | 277.99$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.57 | 168 | 64.3%108 W · 60 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 73c | 239.35$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.62 | 207 | 42%87 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f21…ff5dbacked Yes | 71c | 214.11$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa68…ba5dbacked Yes | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 148 | 60.1%89 W · 59 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 44c | 198.22$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.22 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 67c | 184$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.72 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -6.0wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 63c | 160$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -6.1wins | -0.18per pick | 67cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xabff…6b73backed No | 43c | 148.22$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.73 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed Yes | 72c | 138.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.87 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 43c | 127.09$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.35 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x124e…a8a9backed No | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7edd…bd63backed Yes | 66c | 86.21$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.31 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2108…d3ddbacked No | 32c | 79.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed No | 44c | 71.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 37c | 69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 33c | 67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 51c | 65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.66 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 66c | 64$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…7feabacked No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 68c | 53$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -7.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -30%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x17f4…9d7fbacked No | 32c | 50.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3e…5a86backed Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebbf…cf44backed No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764a…83d3backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc972…dcd9backed No | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +5.7wins | +0.27per pick | 35cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…a4e6backed No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed Yes | 67c | 49.97$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 44c | 46.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 66c | 44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 578 | 38.9%225 W · 353 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…5db6backed No | 47c | 39.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 71c | 36.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…743ebacked Yes | 69c | 29.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb598…14fcbacked Yes | 73c | 28.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…3ff9backed No | 49c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.23per pick | 65cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed No | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -7.8wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -17.5wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x32c5…adc9backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56d3…e307backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -9.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.