TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $0.70T and $0.80T on July 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$71,586
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$65,573

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,586 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 148 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7157…e799backed Yes0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c10…d7b3backed Yes0c4,064$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.64633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-54%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes47c3,750$1,763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,762.941136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes3c3,298$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.495547.3%26 W · 29 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+20.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe917…9612backed No47c2,569$1,215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,353.852722.2%6 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-24.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3de6…e560backed Yes35c1,714$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.491040%4 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes56c1,400$784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$783.5945738.9%178 W · 279 L-31.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0840…9746backed Yes39c1,391$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.24933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No46c1,189$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.927943%34 W · 45 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-24.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2d9…5653backed Yes24c1,126$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.623537.1%13 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No67c1,108$744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.115440.7%22 W · 32 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-29.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes3c1,000$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes49c1,000$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.5912636.5%46 W · 80 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+20%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0d5…c665backed Yes2c1,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-40.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb23e…829abacked Yes4c999.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.21per pick35cpaid-36.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes18c960.79$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.18241.5%34 W · 48 L+6.5wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb5cd…6055backed Yes1c950.36$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-60.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes5c850.33$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.210561.9%65 W · 40 L+17.4wins+0.17per pick45cpaid+34.8%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No47c701.46$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.9519432%62 W · 132 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-40.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa32d…df56backed Yes6c666.84$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked No58c643.32$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.215324.5%13 W · 40 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No54c606.27$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.97448.6%36 W · 38 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1da8…aa05backed Yes75c540.72$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.79560%3 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick72cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x933c…b820backed Yes57c525.63$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-49.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes48c491.67$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.33855.3%21 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No54c459.75$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.326145.9%28 W · 33 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x999f…da43backed Yes43c449.9$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.115048%24 W · 26 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x150d…f44bbacked Yes20c445.22$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No58c444.83$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.98942.7%38 W · 51 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-28.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x57f5…8107backed Yes77c444.29$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf07…c770backed Yes12c384.89$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.492516%4 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-18.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes42c370.34$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.776726.9%18 W · 49 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-47.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes25c368.97$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.7415047.3%71 W · 79 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No47c364.53$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.074736.2%17 W · 30 L-3.7wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-37%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No53c344.14$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.8917824.2%43 W · 135 L-12.4wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-56%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes15c339.67$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.4811124.3%27 W · 84 L-16.1wins-0.15per pick39cpaid-54.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No71c327$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.988547.1%40 W · 45 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-30.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No31c316.62$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.256448.4%31 W · 33 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No77c303.23$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.145848.3%28 W · 30 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-11.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x49bb…aaf9backed Yes5c300.01$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.843721.6%8 W · 29 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-39.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3fc…484abacked No74c285$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.415733.3%19 W · 38 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-20.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No51c278.63$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.758741.4%36 W · 51 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-28.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No52c275.29$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.4729430.6%90 W · 204 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7fb…8eb0backed Yes54c273.98$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.271145.5%5 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-18.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No53c271.6$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.927041.4%29 W · 41 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-36.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No38c250.99$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.386439.1%25 W · 39 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-28.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcd0…391dbacked Yes21c247.88$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9453…1a48backed Yes16c242.96$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-68.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No68c237.54$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.945843.1%25 W · 33 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-29.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked Yes50c227.19$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.329525.3%24 W · 71 L-13.3wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-16.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xfe2d…da35backed No61c211.65$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.2955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No57c210$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.867538.7%29 W · 46 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-38.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x33e3…a9debacked Yes46c204.38$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No47c200.74$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.324946.9%23 W · 26 L-0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8843…c0e9backed No70c200$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2213…492cbacked No47c199.99$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+110.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d8c…757abacked No32c199.15$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.971346.2%6 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No53c195$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.3347938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38a2…9c46backed Yes51c183.67$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.68425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-39.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfcaa…aed2backed Yes59c180.13$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.08250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+34.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x671a…2f1ebacked No53c180.04$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.973946.2%18 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No50c172.61$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.192744.4%12 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+33.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca75…0a64backed No59c169.61$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.213348.5%16 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes51c167$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.468123.5%19 W · 62 L-9.6wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-55.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x03e1…e180backed No51c145.63$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.84042.5%17 W · 23 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe056…9230backed Yes43c139.21$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f4…cd2ebacked Yes73c136.48$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-34.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c8a…5d15backed Yes49c121.09$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.49944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x843e…e477backed No53c120.65$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.19757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x01a4…0064backed Yes43c116.09$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes72c115.72$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.0614421.5%31 W · 113 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb5f…c111backed Yes41c112.99$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.87650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+21.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x05f7…22bcbacked No51c111.11$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.231060%6 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid+62.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9393…18cfbacked Yes41c107.96$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.85540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-20.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No70c106.31$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.232544%11 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-31.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe347…b438backed No52c104.19$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.246647%31 W · 35 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ff9…3427backed Yes19c103.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.68425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+235.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ad8…43e2backed Yes60c100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.32245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-23.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xecfa…3c6fbacked No52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.81650%8 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed Yes67c100$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.21435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-34.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes19c94.04$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.771,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeed8…35f0backed Yes54c90$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.911118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick38cpaid-64.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No60c83.58$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.4572935.5%259 W · 470 L-57.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x090a…0fa6backed No61c80$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.932045%9 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd322…8503backed Yes51c79.64$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.822441.7%10 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf057…ab54backed Yes50c79.54$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.792540%10 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+34.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf18c…18c1backed Yes56c78$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.682832.1%9 W · 19 L-5.5wins-0.20per pick52cpaid-55.3%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xa7fc…a221backed Yes66c75.7$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76da…bc13backed Yes70c70.96$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed No58c70.21$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.548033.8%27 W · 53 L-7.5wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-25.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No53c68.88$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.5212533.6%42 W · 83 L-12.2wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-31.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x13fa…052abacked Yes71c67.33$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No51c62.53$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.6389317.1%153 W · 740 L-144.9wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-61.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x4629…f3b1backed Yes50c60$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.241926.3%5 W · 14 L-3.5wins-0.19per pick45cpaid-42.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9afd…c377backed Yes65c55.61$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa7ee…d0efbacked Yes53c55.06$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No56c55.03$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.292133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No79c54.53$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.232540%10 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-40.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd288…eec9backed Yes74c51.1$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd004…6a78backed Yes23c50.44$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.51060%6 W · 4 L+2.7wins+0.27per pick33cpaid+47.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.