AI · resolved market
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $0.70T and $0.80T on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9989e93cd64017f3da829c3f0b2dc33a2c5fd09b52f8b74966ac126a91e0aab8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,586
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,573
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,586 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 148 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7157…e799backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c10…d7b3backed Yes | 0c | 4,064$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -54%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 47c | 3,750$1,763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,762.94 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 3c | 3,298$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.49 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe917…9612backed No | 47c | 2,569$1,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,353.85 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…e560backed Yes | 35c | 1,714$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.49 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 56c | 1,400$784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.59 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0840…9746backed Yes | 39c | 1,391$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.24 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 46c | 1,189$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.92 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 24c | 1,126$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.62 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 67c | 1,108$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.11 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.59 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d5…c665backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb23e…829abacked Yes | 4c | 999.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 18c | 960.79$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.1 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5cd…6055backed Yes | 1c | 950.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 5c | 850.33$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 105 | 61.9%65 W · 40 L | +17.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 47c | 701.46$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.95 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa32d…df56backed Yes | 6c | 666.84$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 58c | 643.32$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.21 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 54c | 606.27$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.9 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1da8…aa05backed Yes | 75c | 540.72$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.79 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…b820backed Yes | 57c | 525.63$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 48c | 491.67$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.3 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 54c | 459.75$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.32 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x999f…da43backed Yes | 43c | 449.9$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.11 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x150d…f44bbacked Yes | 20c | 445.22$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 58c | 444.83$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.9 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57f5…8107backed Yes | 77c | 444.29$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf07…c770backed Yes | 12c | 384.89$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.49 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 42c | 370.34$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.77 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 25c | 368.97$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.74 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 47c | 364.53$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.07 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -37%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 53c | 344.14$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.89 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 15c | 339.67$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.48 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | -16.1wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 327$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.98 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 31c | 316.62$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.25 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 77c | 303.23$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.14 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49bb…aaf9backed Yes | 5c | 300.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 74c | 285$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.41 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 51c | 278.63$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.75 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 52c | 275.29$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.47 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fb…8eb0backed Yes | 54c | 273.98$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.27 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 53c | 271.6$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.92 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 38c | 250.99$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.38 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd0…391dbacked Yes | 21c | 247.88$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed Yes | 16c | 242.96$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 68c | 237.54$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.94 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 50c | 227.19$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.32 | 95 | 25.3%24 W · 71 L | -13.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 61c | 211.65$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 57c | 210$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.86 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33e3…a9debacked Yes | 46c | 204.38$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 47c | 200.74$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.32 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8843…c0e9backed No | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2213…492cbacked No | 47c | 199.99$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +110.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8c…757abacked No | 32c | 199.15$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.97 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 53c | 195$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.33 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a2…9c46backed Yes | 51c | 183.67$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcaa…aed2backed Yes | 59c | 180.13$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 53c | 180.04$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.97 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 50c | 172.61$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.19 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 59c | 169.61$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.21 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes | 51c | 167$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.46 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | -9.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed No | 51c | 145.63$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.8 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe056…9230backed Yes | 43c | 139.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f4…cd2ebacked Yes | 73c | 136.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8a…5d15backed Yes | 49c | 121.09$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.49 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x843e…e477backed No | 53c | 120.65$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.19 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…0064backed Yes | 43c | 116.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 72c | 115.72$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.06 | 144 | 21.5%31 W · 113 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb5f…c111backed Yes | 41c | 112.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.87 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 51c | 111.11$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.23 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9393…18cfbacked Yes | 41c | 107.96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 70c | 106.31$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.23 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 52c | 104.19$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.24 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff9…3427backed Yes | 19c | 103.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +235.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad8…43e2backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.8 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 19c | 94.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeed8…35f0backed Yes | 54c | 90$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.91 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 83.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.45 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 61c | 80$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.93 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed Yes | 51c | 79.64$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.82 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed Yes | 50c | 79.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.79 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 56c | 78$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -5.5wins | -0.20per pick | 52cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fc…a221backed Yes | 66c | 75.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76da…bc13backed Yes | 70c | 70.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 58c | 70.21$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.54 | 80 | 33.8%27 W · 53 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 53c | 68.88$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 125 | 33.6%42 W · 83 L | -12.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…052abacked Yes | 71c | 67.33$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 51c | 62.53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.63 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 45cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…c377backed Yes | 65c | 55.61$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ee…d0efbacked Yes | 53c | 55.06$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 56c | 55.03$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 79c | 54.53$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd288…eec9backed Yes | 74c | 51.1$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd004…6a78backed Yes | 23c | 50.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $0.70T and $0.80T on July 31?this page
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $1.20T on July 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $0.80T and $0.90T on July 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $0.90T and $1.00T on July 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.00T and $1.10T on July 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.10T and $1.20T on July 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $0.70T on July 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.