AI · resolved market
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.00T and $1.10T on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0cfbde9261332b2f6b98275aa19eac084cefc55819962bbaa6d98734bd6ad0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,783
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,607
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,783 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6560…e164backed Yes | 8c | 1,942$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.81 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,564$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf07…c770backed Yes | 28c | 580.54$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.61 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 28c | 452$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.28 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 20c | 350$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 77c | 325.19$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.38 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 79c | 302$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.09 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf81a…eba3backed Yes | 26c | 231.8$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.75 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -72%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbd…1288backed Yes | 19c | 197.02$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +186.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 72c | 185$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff9…3427backed Yes | 29c | 150$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +235.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 28c | 129.88$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.38 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0840…9746backed No | 79c | 120.32$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b7…cdb7backed Yes | 26c | 107.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 73c | 107.63$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -21.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 27c | 101$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 80 | 33.8%27 W · 53 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 34c | 86.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 82.52$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 72c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa37c…4311backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bd4…9370backed Yes | 35c | 71.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 76c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 76c | 64.41$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 71c | 61.11$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 59.32$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd00…d1afbacked No | 76c | 57.74$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 74c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 21c | 51.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…ea5cbacked No | 66c | 51.04$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 28c | 50.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x699d…4260backed Yes | 20c | 50.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…3ea8backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…3428backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 26c | 43.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -5.5wins | -0.20per pick | 52cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 39.96$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 142 | 81%115 W · 27 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…fe40backed No | 69c | 24.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd10a…b9cdbacked No | 71c | 19.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 64cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd20…6159backed No | 72c | 16.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -4.9wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 66c | 15.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.00T and $1.10T on July 31?this page
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $1.20T on July 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $0.70T and $0.80T on July 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $0.80T and $0.90T on July 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $0.90T and $1.00T on July 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.10T and $1.20T on July 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $0.70T on July 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.