AI · resolved market
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $1.20T on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c1c09dd419c7f0e3de9213589ed2d49b0d2bfecdcc1f5cd11c62258a82597a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,771
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,083
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,771 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes | 1c | 9,107$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.07 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0840…9746backed No | 78c | 828.67$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.52 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67ce…cd2fbacked Yes | 21c | 570.03$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6560…e164backed Yes | 9c | 551.46$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.16 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x10c0…dd25backed Yes | 34c | 476.85$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1452…449cbacked Yes | 19c | 400.3$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 66c | 366.43$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.25 | 460 | 38.9%179 W · 281 L | -31.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 27c | 300$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 125 | 33.6%42 W · 83 L | -12.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 66c | 179.22$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.18 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 65c | 160$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…8f40backed No | 66c | 159$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.06 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked No | 79c | 159$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee6b…e9d8backed No | 61c | 101.25$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa0…ee01backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 731 | 35.6%260 W · 471 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0306…a81ebacked Yes | 38c | 80.4$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49bb…aaf9backed Yes | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 19c | 74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…5658backed No | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd00…d1afbacked No | 66c | 57.74$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c19…cd48backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 70cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 33c | 49.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 84 | 35.7%30 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 34c | 49.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 80 | 33.8%27 W · 53 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…fe40backed No | 66c | 38.9$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 142 | 81%115 W · 27 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d33…c15fbacked No | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb119…680bbacked No | 74c | 21.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 58cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…4aa9backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 66c | 15.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $1.20T on July 31?this page
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $0.70T and $0.80T on July 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $0.80T and $0.90T on July 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $0.90T and $1.00T on July 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.00T and $1.10T on July 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.10T and $1.20T on July 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $0.70T on July 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.