AI · resolved market
Intel (INTC) Q2 adjusted gross margin (non-GAAP) 40%-42%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5bbbb8a8baf1e27fdb861c985c80e296a64c14179d6323ef81466c1456961bb9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,987
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,825
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,987 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 27c | 1,885$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,368 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 38c | 1,763$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,094.61 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 34c | 470.14$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.29 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 73c | 379.85$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.39 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 65c | 304.67$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.02 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 73c | 290$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.7 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 64c | 267$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.66 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -37%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 66c | 262.02$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.35 | 125 | 33.6%42 W · 83 L | -12.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 73c | 251$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.23 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -21.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3abe…1446backed Yes | 34c | 237.96$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +136.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 67c | 236$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.26 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 35c | 211.83$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.27 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 84 | 35.7%30 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 66c | 183.25$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.29 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed No | 56c | 150.17$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.39 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 65c | 150$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -5.5wins | -0.20per pick | 52cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 27c | 140.1$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.27 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 134.61$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.65 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 72c | 125$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 61c | 125$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.72 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 66c | 123.48$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.5 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 66c | 110.04$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.14 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 104$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.65 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 60c | 102$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.42 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 101.18$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.77 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 66c | 87$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.03 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 73c | 80$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 73$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.56 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xab80…af18backed Yes | 33c | 72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 67c | 67.88$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.78 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 29c | 63.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked Yes | 36c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.6 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…7feabacked Yes | 34c | 58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.28 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b3…9bc4backed Yes | 31c | 55.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 54.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…220bbacked Yes | 30c | 52.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89cc…9e01backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 30c | 49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.29 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 72c | 49$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 95 | 25.3%24 W · 71 L | -13.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x77e5…3c69backed No | 64c | 44.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.5wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb51c…502dbacked Yes | 27c | 40.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.14 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 37cpaid | +85.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42bc…63e3backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 37cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81b9…38f8backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 31cpaid | +111.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 75c | 36.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 60c | 35.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 57c | 25.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 50c | 23.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 64c | 20.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 64c | 20.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.1wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0041…967cbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -4.2wins | -0.38per pick | 56cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x608f…9065backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.26per pick | 55cpaid | -39%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x239f…8b82backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -4.7wins | -0.42per pick | 61cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Intel (INTC) Q2 adjusted gross margin (non-GAAP) 40%-42%?this page
- Intel (INTC) Q2 adjusted gross margin (non-GAAP) 38%-40%?No won
- Intel (INTC) Q2 adjusted gross margin (non-GAAP) 42%-44%?No won
- Intel (INTC) Q2 adjusted gross margin (non-GAAP) 44%+?No won
- Intel (INTC) Q2 adjusted gross margin (non-GAAP) <38%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.