AI · resolved market
Intel (INTC) Q2 adjusted gross margin (non-GAAP) 38%-40%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7998d858b5e6f659bfd8e37a3264b8fb1e32ed935c0acb0256bd8dab8c5a4eb4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,925
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,586
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,925 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 48c | 3,061$1,481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,481.04 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked No | 47c | 1,456$681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774.47 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa22b…0673backed Yes | 33c | 612.77$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x124e…a8a9backed Yes | 4c | 486.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 46c | 371.85$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.32 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 52c | 353.62$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.02 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 55c | 313.38$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.52 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 64c | 267$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.99 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -37%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 37c | 246.35$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.15 | 62 | 16.1%10 W · 52 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 40c | 238.86$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.56 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 84 | 35.7%30 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 53c | 199.2$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.52 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 52c | 192.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.4 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 57c | 160$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 59c | 155$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.07 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab80…af18backed No | 35c | 142$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 52c | 137$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.76 | 125 | 33.6%42 W · 83 L | -12.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 52c | 135$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 52c | 134$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.32 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 37c | 120$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 64c | 107.04$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.33 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 61c | 102$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.35 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -11.8wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 67c | 92$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 66c | 86.73$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.66 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abe…1446backed No | 57c | 74.47$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +136.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 63c | 74.08$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 36c | 71.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 89 | 33.7%30 W · 59 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 65c | 68.78$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.12 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 36c | 62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1790…6fd2backed Yes | 64c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…2f31backed No | 58c | 57.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 50c | 57.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 80 | 33.8%27 W · 53 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed Yes | 48c | 48.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94d9…bc47backed Yes | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 32c | 45.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed Yes | 49c | 44.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…7fdfbacked No | 69c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -25%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…220bbacked No | 53c | 38.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 57c | 36.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 34c | 33.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes | 48c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | -9.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 41c | 31.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77e5…3c69backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.5wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e64…c43ebacked No | 67c | 29.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…c360backed No | 55c | 27.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4f…e321backed No | 50c | 26.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 61c | 20.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.1wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 72 | 23.6%17 W · 55 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x905d…2c17backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2317…56c3backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…f90bbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 67cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb5…3d4fbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Intel (INTC) Q2 adjusted gross margin (non-GAAP) 38%-40%?this page
- Intel (INTC) Q2 adjusted gross margin (non-GAAP) 40%-42%?Yes won
- Intel (INTC) Q2 adjusted gross margin (non-GAAP) 42%-44%?No won
- Intel (INTC) Q2 adjusted gross margin (non-GAAP) 44%+?No won
- Intel (INTC) Q2 adjusted gross margin (non-GAAP) <38%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.