AI · resolved market
Will Claude go down 9-11 times in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x063a71de7eccdabdcad475d00d3844107daa2ca689966f227a8a2ab7a8dc5812
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,387
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,811
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,387 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa277…1182backed Yes | 45c | 2,071$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$929.55 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd48f…2132backed No | 58c | 1,887$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$786.83 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 69c | 1,611$1,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,106.2 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 20c | 1,276$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.96 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 46c | 999.34$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.95 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 759.64$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.8 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 54c | 623.79$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.23 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9687…1b7cbacked Yes | 39c | 604$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.14 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe172…248abacked Yes | 38c | 585$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 70c | 567.64$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.53 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13bb…c279backed Yes | 2c | 538.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +80.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 30c | 366.67$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.67 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 72c | 342.18$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.93 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ec…9782backed Yes | 31c | 320.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa340…cac0backed Yes | 46c | 306.75$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.83 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda5…ee3abacked Yes | 36c | 282$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.52 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 44c | 264.87$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.83 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 75c | 262.73$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.68 | 80 | 33.8%27 W · 53 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5004…9999backed No | 30c | 257.52$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.01 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +159.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96ca…0e48backed Yes | 39c | 255.94$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 52c | 254.74$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 41c | 249.92$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.57 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf3…369dbacked No | 77c | 242.95$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked No | 67c | 224.4$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.4 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 18c | 219.91$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.53 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 68c | 211.53$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.69 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 54c | 201.16$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.83 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 71c | 201.03$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.14 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…41b8backed No | 72c | 199.99$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked Yes | 56c | 193.27$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.51 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0550…c7efbacked Yes | 68c | 193.07$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.71 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 26c | 189.07$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.55 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x154e…911fbacked Yes | 20c | 178.49$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.24 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 12c | 169.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77ad…ba8abacked Yes | 58c | 160$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 35c | 156.18$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.33 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 11c | 154.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 74c | 150$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.48 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 63c | 150$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.05 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | -10.6wins | -0.21per pick | 47cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 63c | 141$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.3 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 67c | 140.86$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.72 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 33c | 135.38$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.14 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 51c | 133$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.81 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0074…0767backed Yes | 69c | 130$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.03 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +165.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…0439backed Yes | 50c | 124$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8673…4025backed Yes | 8c | 123.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 62c | 123.02$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.96 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 10c | 123$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…d0e5backed No | 41c | 122.95$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.15 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -4.1wins | -0.27per pick | 54cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7bdd…5fb3backed Yes | 14c | 115$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 37c | 109.21$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.51 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed No | 71c | 108.09$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.61 | 115 | 49.6%57 W · 58 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd907…d4f6backed Yes | 28c | 107.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…24e5backed Yes | 26c | 107$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 18c | 106.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.97 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe432…934abacked Yes | 76c | 106$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +191.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +7.8wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.05 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 47c | 98.59$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.3 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -25%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0049…6034backed Yes | 64c | 93.52$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.15 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 36c | 92.23$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 72c | 88$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.45 | 95 | 25.3%24 W · 71 L | -13.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 43c | 87.01$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…7feabacked Yes | 65c | 86.15$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5195…44ebbacked Yes | 20c | 85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 40c | 80.28$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.87 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed Yes | 76c | 78.41$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.28 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f2…ddd0backed Yes | 34c | 73.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 79c | 73.01$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 69c | 72.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 26c | 66.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 44c | 66.27$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes | 74c | 63$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.68 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | -9.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb90a…78e1backed Yes | 24c | 59.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9b…a68cbacked Yes | 37c | 59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked Yes | 75c | 58.56$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.72 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 19c | 55.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -21.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1b17…ab15backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda8d…9377backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x475f…17bcbacked Yes | 24c | 51.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cad…c773backed Yes | 72c | 50.57$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1de2…7273backed Yes | 38c | 50.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…5cccbacked No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03b3…9a65backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 65c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8a…5d15backed Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…6254backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc2dd…61dcbacked Yes | 65c | 49.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 52c | 49.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 125 | 33.6%42 W · 83 L | -12.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 35c | 49.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -11.8wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 76c | 49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -5.5wins | -0.20per pick | 52cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 76c | 48.59$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 32c | 42.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3774…b424backed No | 63c | 42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9393…18cfbacked Yes | 67c | 41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Claude go down 9-11 times in July?this page
- Will Claude go down 0-2 times in July?No won
- Will Claude go down 12+ times in July?Yes won
- Will Claude go down 3-5 times in July?No won
- Will Claude go down 6-8 times in July?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.