AI · resolved market
Will Claude go down 12+ times in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66c27eb67757b26d4ffabdd10e1cecf19a6abcfb0c763d7849369be4cac99500
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,382
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,735
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,382 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6098…c419backed Yes | 19c | 2,458$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,983.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +159%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 46c | 1,344$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.89 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3183…c5ebbacked Yes | 18c | 1,168$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$961.98 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 63c | 1,071$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.53 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 18c | 992.29$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816.42 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x154e…911fbacked Yes | 15c | 887.27$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$751.31 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 63c | 695.36$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.04 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9687…1b7cbacked Yes | 10c | 609$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.83 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2543…f49fbacked Yes | 18c | 565.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +184.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48f…2132backed Yes | 27c | 500.48$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.93 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8168…90e7backed Yes | 54c | 454.71$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.3 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x791f…e166backed Yes | 18c | 428.86$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.38 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +262.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x76db…6987backed Yes | 17c | 405.79$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.18 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…3cffbacked Yes | 46c | 400$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.19 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x039b…9b6cbacked Yes | 15c | 340$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.38 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 8c | 327.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 54c | 320.31$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.34 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 65c | 304.43$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.97 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8673…4025backed Yes | 9c | 266.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.14 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 19c | 258.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.33 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d4…a6d1backed Yes | 19c | 248$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 20c | 233.62$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.86 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 15c | 211.53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.78 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 75c | 206.23$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.5 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0550…c7efbacked Yes | 13c | 193.07$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.9 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ec…9782backed Yes | 61c | 181.42$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.42 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 60c | 165.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.29 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5a…4d23backed No | 67c | 150.22$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 34c | 148.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.17 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked Yes | 18c | 136.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 15c | 131$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.48 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0074…0767backed Yes | 9c | 130$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.72 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +165.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bdd…5fb3backed Yes | 22c | 123$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.31 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd907…d4f6backed Yes | 16c | 121.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.32 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 46c | 114$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.44 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe432…934abacked Yes | 17c | 106$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +191.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 24c | 97.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.94 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 42c | 80.66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…c360backed No | 28c | 79.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3d…2ff5backed Yes | 17c | 75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 40c | 74.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 74c | 53.6$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 32c | 52.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.96 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00f8…5e7fbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 45cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 61c | 45.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 68c | 43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 69c | 41.52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 77c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 62c | 37.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeced…c598backed No | 58c | 37.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +5.8wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeed8…35f0backed No | 54c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 38c | 34.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3103…ea70backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 61c | 28.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed No | 54c | 24.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf947…016bbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d0…8fb7backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8c…757abacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 72c | 16.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 72c | 16.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 72c | 16.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 73c | 16.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Claude go down 12+ times in July?this page
- Will Claude go down 0-2 times in July?No won
- Will Claude go down 3-5 times in July?No won
- Will Claude go down 6-8 times in July?No won
- Will Claude go down 9-11 times in July?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.