AI · resolved market
Will Claude go down 3-5 times in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5d4fe1d6aacf881968455574854b995a0c2ac766ead9148b95a5ae2a3d1ce40
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,786
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,113
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,786 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe172…248abacked Yes | 20c | 1,537$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9687…1b7cbacked Yes | 9c | 484$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.38 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 37c | 400$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5acf…b102backed Yes | 31c | 357.03$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x154e…911fbacked No | 67c | 350$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.94 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 5c | 316.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa277…1182backed Yes | 16c | 292.74$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.81 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 29c | 283.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.51 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 65c | 255.51$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.29 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd907…d4f6backed Yes | 13c | 230.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 11c | 220.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 193.19$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.05 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 18c | 176.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 173$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 71c | 152.2$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.33 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…24e5backed Yes | 21c | 149.75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 8c | 130.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 75c | 128$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 66c | 127.87$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.95 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 42c | 124.34$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.85 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fd…b42cbacked Yes | 40c | 117.54$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.21 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 60c | 105$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…e2b9backed Yes | 13c | 105$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -5.5wins | -0.20per pick | 52cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x38a8…865abacked Yes | 22c | 90$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 57c | 87.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.08 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5195…44ebbacked Yes | 14c | 84.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 80c | 81.79$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 138 | 8%11 W · 127 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 67c | 74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73cb…7627backed Yes | 51c | 70$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 59c | 53.73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 125 | 33.6%42 W · 83 L | -12.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -11.8wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf763…8d83backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 32cpaid | +126.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 60c | 24.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7f…2015backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Claude go down 3-5 times in July?this page
- Will Claude go down 0-2 times in July?No won
- Will Claude go down 12+ times in July?Yes won
- Will Claude go down 6-8 times in July?No won
- Will Claude go down 9-11 times in July?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.