AI · resolved market
Will Claude go down 6-8 times in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3c9d1fcc61d47db66f607a8182a2a06302177f92ff28efeced88b1337fb1294
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,631
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,518
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,631 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 43c | 1,271$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.76 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe172…248abacked Yes | 33c | 1,226$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 149 | 1.3%2 W · 147 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa277…1182backed Yes | 18c | 1,007$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.75 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 41c | 903.96$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.83 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9687…1b7cbacked Yes | 40c | 606.36$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.07 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 16c | 604.8$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.99 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1b…1419backed No | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96ca…0e48backed Yes | 21c | 418.64$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…271bbacked No | 45c | 406$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.36 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 61cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 17c | 380.52$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.2 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 30c | 376.48$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.11 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 57c | 354.26$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.66 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 47c | 330.81$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.77 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked Yes | 20c | 320.95$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.81 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 53c | 298.87$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.8 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -21.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 36c | 281.94$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.3 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked Yes | 35c | 262.92$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.29 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -61%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 24c | 254.74$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.88 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 22c | 245.29$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.46 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 242.98$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.89 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x154e…911fbacked No | 59c | 239.64$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.25 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 43c | 231.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.07 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 49c | 229.47$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.1 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 9c | 210.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 45c | 199.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 17c | 196.63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 20c | 194.62$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58bb…a539backed Yes | 52c | 192.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…24e5backed Yes | 35c | 185.97$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.33 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 51c | 180.78$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.13 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 50c | 173$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.08 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 29c | 172.01$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.41 | 95 | 25.3%24 W · 71 L | -13.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 19c | 160.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 40c | 152$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.79 | 125 | 33.6%42 W · 83 L | -12.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 59c | 150$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65b8…037fbacked Yes | 51c | 147.05$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0550…c7efbacked Yes | 21c | 145$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 61c | 136.74$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.31 | 80 | 33.8%27 W · 53 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 44c | 133$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.93 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 67c | 125$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0074…0767backed Yes | 20c | 110.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +165.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…ea5cbacked No | 58c | 108.3$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.58 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd777…81fabacked Yes | 19c | 105.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 58c | 104.81$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.02 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 73c | 102.21$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.58 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 30c | 100.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +7.8wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764a…83d3backed No | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fd…b42cbacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…c360backed Yes | 12c | 96.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 25c | 94.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20c…f9f8backed Yes | 32c | 91.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78c5…f623backed Yes | 18c | 89.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5195…44ebbacked Yes | 57c | 85$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 59c | 80$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 79.25$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…9aeabacked Yes | 22c | 66.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1790…6fd2backed Yes | 66c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71ac…bbf9backed No | 51c | 58.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 43c | 57.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 89 | 33.7%30 W · 59 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…d0e5backed Yes | 57c | 56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -4.1wins | -0.27per pick | 54cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 41c | 54.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 84 | 35.7%30 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed No | 59c | 53.82$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 30c | 53.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x130d…3205backed Yes | 42c | 51.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 22c | 51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 144 | 23.6%34 W · 110 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | -10.6wins | -0.21per pick | 47cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e9…bf77backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x065b…714fbacked No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c2…5b5fbacked Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd907…d4f6backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf876…79a1backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd20…6159backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -4.9wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbf98…4461backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972c…d1a1backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 49c | 49.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 28c | 47.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1028…1316backed Yes | 54c | 46.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51bb…df40backed Yes | 54c | 46.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35d7…28f8backed Yes | 54c | 46.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 62c | 44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…6254backed Yes | 39c | 42.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 40c | 39.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8673…4025backed No | 64c | 39.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 62c | 39.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…dd86backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4148…424fbacked Yes | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 59c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -11.8wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0c22backed Yes | 51c | 22.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb119…680bbacked No | 68c | 14.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 58cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Claude go down 6-8 times in July?this page
- Will Claude go down 0-2 times in July?No won
- Will Claude go down 12+ times in July?Yes won
- Will Claude go down 3-5 times in July?No won
- Will Claude go down 9-11 times in July?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.