Earnings · resolved market
Will BGC Partners (BGC) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2fee4280b26603f4941bd55c322c95b506be89d091af37b0f2ab8e160ad7f1b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,216
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,272
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,216 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5076…83d3backed No | 29c | 844.25$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.34 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed No | 27c | 451.49$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.99 | 342 | 37.1%127 W · 215 L | +21.4wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 74c | 448.26$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.22 | 207 | 42%87 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 38c | 400$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 61c | 329$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.31 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…0937backed Yes | 72c | 274.75$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked No | 34c | 217.95$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.98 | 134 | 32.8%44 W · 90 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 67c | 209.66$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.7 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d59…f7e5backed Yes | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 168 | 64.3%108 W · 60 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…5db6backed No | 34c | 167.07$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 39c | 167$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.13 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 66c | 154.99$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.35 | 760 | 37.6%286 W · 474 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 72c | 119.99$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0e…f132backed Yes | 67c | 104.49$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 34c | 104.06$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -7.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -30%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda20…cb8dbacked Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed No | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 76c | 91.84$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.18per pick | 26cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc972…dcd9backed Yes | 59c | 73.71$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.96 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +5.7wins | +0.27per pick | 35cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 71c | 72$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 578 | 38.9%225 W · 353 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe000…cbb1backed Yes | 74c | 65$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 141 | 71.6%101 W · 40 L | +22.4wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -11.1wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…7feabacked No | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 34c | 59.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 179 | 35.2%63 W · 116 L | -14.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4d…4a9dbacked Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00b5…1b11backed Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -60%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9882…1d24backed Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 45cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0e…3c0fbacked Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd83f…03b1backed Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…a4e6backed Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 36c | 33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 72c | 29.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed Yes | 58c | 27.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6f…d87ebacked Yes | 68c | 19.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c67…0cacbacked Yes | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.