Token Launches · resolved market
Over $10M committed to the RipCars public sale?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55650f8f4838ff162c926d24a876236b21f71bed6317923cb76b97a65b6cbdff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,175
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,581
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,175 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa09b…071ebacked No | 2c | 4,328$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.96 | 74 | 18.9%14 W · 60 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc60…af79backed No | 49c | 4,000$1,975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,975 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe270…10b5backed Yes | 78c | 2,666$2,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.49 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 1,661$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…fd72backed Yes | 51c | 1,592$818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774.08 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +6.4wins | +0.27per pick | 15cpaid | +220.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…0906backed Yes | 53c | 1,134$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.25 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +12.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x407d…1baebacked Yes | 59c | 1,020$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.96 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 167 | 40.7%68 W · 99 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff44…9e86backed Yes | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 1c | 952$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 154 | 1.9%3 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6d…ed0bbacked No | 32c | 928.47$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.67 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd2…b613backed Yes | 50c | 664.98$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.98 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 41c | 609$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.69 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…89bfbacked Yes | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c23…e487backed Yes | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c99…8627backed No | 32c | 461.83$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.13 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb637…4c42backed No | 50c | 411.02$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.2 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77e4…d18fbacked Yes | 50c | 339.15$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.58 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…b912backed Yes | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x108d…508abacked No | 52c | 298$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.9 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x444c…9d2ebacked No | 7c | 260$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d59…bdf3backed Yes | 49c | 197$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.47 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5302…5e5bbacked No | 50c | 191.7$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…4723backed Yes | 51c | 190$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.1 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 20c | 152.21$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 254 | 22%56 W · 198 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4705…c610backed No | 51c | 120$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed Yes | 25c | 104$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +4.4wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb24c…eefebacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7402…6a0cbacked No | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed No | 50c | 96$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -36%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…7feabacked No | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff69…0efebacked No | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 43c | 52.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8fda…3fd7backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 100 | 47%47 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 62c | 39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 33c | 31.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -12.9wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7f…6413backed Yes | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…7004backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x357c…d728backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over $10M committed to the RipCars public sale?this page
- Over $15M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $17.5M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $1M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $20M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $22.5M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $250k committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $25M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $27.5M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $2M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $30M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $32.5M committed to the RipCars public sale?No won
- Over $35M committed to the RipCars public sale?No won
- Over $37.5M committed to the RipCars public sale?No won
- Over $3M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $40M committed to the RipCars public sale?No won
- Over $4M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $500k committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $50M committed to the RipCars public sale?No won
- Over $5M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $60M committed to the RipCars public sale?No won
- Over $6M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $70M committed to the RipCars public sale?No won
- Over $750k committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $7M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $8M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $9M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.