Token Launches · resolved market
Over $25M committed to the RipCars public sale?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc509866f6be21b2abcdc4360537fa7de32fbfa736e0ecdbd28af000767e8ee46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $103,736
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $99,815
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $103,736 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdf2a…637cbacked No | 0c | 55,542$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.54 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 10,375$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.49 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed No | 1c | 3,057$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +260.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf67f…31cfbacked No | 14c | 2,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe486…8e60backed No | 26c | 1,700$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb99…4daebacked No | 8c | 1,500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 14c | 1,341$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,147.31 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 2c | 1,270$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 154 | 1.9%3 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 171 | 2.9%5 W · 166 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x638d…3d87backed Yes | 77c | 969.08$747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76db…6987backed No | 4c | 825.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 4c | 760.86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65d4…b7e3backed No | 66c | 760.8$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…fd72backed Yes | 16c | 671.7$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.23 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +6.4wins | +0.27per pick | 15cpaid | +220.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x63a4…2528backed Yes | 65c | 499.99$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +13.8wins | +0.42per pick | 31cpaid | +257.2%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…0906backed Yes | 51c | 400$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +12.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4d…7670backed No | 78c | 268.27$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd953…a9c0backed No | 33c | 200.12$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.37 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356a…bfeabacked Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +265%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x804f…64febacked No | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed No | 38c | 196$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.84 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -36%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 15c | 183.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1925…b15dbacked Yes | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 23c | 181.75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -12.9wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad26…da90backed No | 8c | 170$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 25c | 142.24$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.24 | 254 | 22%56 W · 198 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2745…a3dcbacked Yes | 78c | 140.91$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.17 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 70cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed Yes | 48c | 112.21$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.83 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 30c | 112$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.78 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x233b…1f2cbacked Yes | 72c | 110.47$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.93 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8519…0b78backed No | 43c | 109.86$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 29c | 107$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7d…3f48backed Yes | 35c | 92.24$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +110.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e6…c078backed No | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 18c | 79.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed No | 43c | 78.92$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1c…d9cfbacked Yes | 79c | 76.25$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…62a0backed Yes | 60c | 76.17$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…859dbacked Yes | 36c | 70$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 60c | 68$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.88 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 20c | 60.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8e…32dfbacked No | 53c | 60.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d75…4e46backed No | 76c | 52.05$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 78cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 21c | 47.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.76 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed No | 68c | 45.3$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +4.4wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1924…dff3backed No | 49c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7402…6a0cbacked No | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 51c | 39.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 28c | 37.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9bcb…b8f0backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc185…7020backed No | 66c | 19.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over $25M committed to the RipCars public sale?this page
- Over $10M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $15M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $17.5M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $1M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $20M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $22.5M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $250k committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $27.5M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $2M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $30M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $32.5M committed to the RipCars public sale?No won
- Over $35M committed to the RipCars public sale?No won
- Over $37.5M committed to the RipCars public sale?No won
- Over $3M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $40M committed to the RipCars public sale?No won
- Over $4M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $500k committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $50M committed to the RipCars public sale?No won
- Over $5M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $60M committed to the RipCars public sale?No won
- Over $6M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $70M committed to the RipCars public sale?No won
- Over $750k committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $7M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $8M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $9M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.