Token Launches · resolved market
Over $20M committed to the RipCars public sale?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe716125eaca177c21d07e97c49d3648228ec1b95ee8a2bf9ef79ac62a759f0a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,984
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,262
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,984 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbd6d…ed0bbacked No | 17c | 818.27$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.56 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 2c | 746.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -12.9wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed Yes | 69c | 699.99$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…4723backed Yes | 68c | 489.23$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.19 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 80c | 399.99$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.99 | 167 | 40.7%68 W · 99 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 20c | 339.92$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.13 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3d…747ebacked No | 31c | 304.08$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7402…6a0cbacked No | 14c | 300$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x845a…5606backed No | 30c | 299.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.86 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 12c | 281$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.58 | 154 | 1.9%3 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed Yes | 77c | 257.64$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.15 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa09b…071ebacked No | 21c | 254.23$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 74 | 18.9%14 W · 60 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69a0…e5f6backed Yes | 79c | 251.68$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.68 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1925…b15dbacked Yes | 70c | 221.28$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.45 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb637…4c42backed No | 77c | 220$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.8 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…0906backed Yes | 50c | 192.4$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.64 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +12.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x65d4…b7e3backed No | 31c | 161.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x108d…508abacked Yes | 54c | 159.09$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.36 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2745…a3dcbacked Yes | 71c | 127.65$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.52 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 70cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…fd72backed Yes | 27c | 126$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.5 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +6.4wins | +0.27per pick | 15cpaid | +220.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5d59…bdf3backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fda…3fd7backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 100 | 47%47 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1214…ebecbacked No | 60c | 99.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +4.2wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +286.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 32c | 58.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 254 | 22%56 W · 198 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff69…0efebacked No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 68c | 47$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.07 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea9b…8cebbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0479…8177backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…7004backed No | 80c | 19.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over $20M committed to the RipCars public sale?this page
- Over $10M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $15M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $17.5M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $1M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $22.5M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $250k committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $25M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $27.5M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $2M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $30M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $32.5M committed to the RipCars public sale?No won
- Over $35M committed to the RipCars public sale?No won
- Over $37.5M committed to the RipCars public sale?No won
- Over $3M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $40M committed to the RipCars public sale?No won
- Over $4M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $500k committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $50M committed to the RipCars public sale?No won
- Over $5M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $60M committed to the RipCars public sale?No won
- Over $6M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $70M committed to the RipCars public sale?No won
- Over $750k committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $7M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $8M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $9M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.