Token Launches · resolved market
Over $40M committed to the RipCars public sale?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb69afff94ca76ebfe9fc25703090aca3f0295e9a78a876ebf938ab3e9d6e0615
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,028
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,383
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,028 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x82cf…0998backed Yes | 5c | 13,844$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731.88 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed Yes | 6c | 5,100$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa87d…e4bfbacked Yes | 25c | 4,318$1,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,081.12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c55…9e26backed No | 75c | 4,000$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5a…aa7abacked Yes | 2c | 3,592$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.77 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 55cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ef…0656backed Yes | 2c | 2,427$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.55 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 7c | 2,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca16…f878backed Yes | 15c | 2,000$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 1,636$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,618$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.06 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2229…6bf8backed No | 78c | 1,275$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.53 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +10.5wins | +0.28per pick | 35cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xd261…b663backed Yes | 19c | 1,220$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0aef…b70ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,184$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 4c | 1,010$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 154 | 1.9%3 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…fd72backed Yes | 8c | 906.95$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +6.4wins | +0.27per pick | 15cpaid | +220.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 6c | 901.5$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.54 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd725…e66ebacked Yes | 19c | 800$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes | 6c | 785.71$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.92 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1590…000dbacked Yes | 3c | 764.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes | 3c | 731.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b4…3c6ebacked Yes | 16c | 552.5$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.38 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65d4…b7e3backed No | 75c | 499.99$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8e…0cc4backed Yes | 5c | 473.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 16cpaid | +295.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 19c | 472.82$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.85 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed No | 74c | 400$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.2 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce83…5b97backed No | 68c | 368$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2015…9678backed Yes | 11c | 363.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 37c | 324.32$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.32 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd47b…c715backed Yes | 6c | 318.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -4.1wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x108d…508abacked Yes | 8c | 308.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…859dbacked Yes | 9c | 216.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 18c | 212.56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.26 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked Yes | 9c | 211$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb717…d819backed Yes | 6c | 190$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fda…3fd7backed Yes | 12c | 118.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 100 | 47%47 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 14c | 110$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 26cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x71fc…171abacked Yes | 14c | 109.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.23per pick | 22cpaid | +265.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x444c…9d2ebacked Yes | 24c | 105.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9620…5052backed Yes | 12c | 103.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.9wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf864…7fb5backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf64…9390backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7402…6a0cbacked No | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…123abacked No | 43c | 56.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.45 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d75…4e46backed No | 78c | 52.76$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 78cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc7…dc1fbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93f4…c2cbbacked No | 62c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8519…0b78backed No | 77c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x660c…7f7abacked No | 72c | 17.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x452f…a0abbacked No | 72c | 15.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over $40M committed to the RipCars public sale?this page
- Over $10M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $15M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $17.5M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $1M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $20M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $22.5M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $250k committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $25M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $27.5M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $2M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $30M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $32.5M committed to the RipCars public sale?No won
- Over $35M committed to the RipCars public sale?No won
- Over $37.5M committed to the RipCars public sale?No won
- Over $3M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $4M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $500k committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $50M committed to the RipCars public sale?No won
- Over $5M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $60M committed to the RipCars public sale?No won
- Over $6M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $70M committed to the RipCars public sale?No won
- Over $750k committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $7M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $8M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $9M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.