Token Launches · resolved market
Over $35M committed to the RipCars public sale?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3aeed318aff9dd650c12b6096782d6581f8fcfdba1bcf2013341072d847f5e4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,100
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,800
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,100 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x71fc…171abacked Yes | 33c | 2,435$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.23per pick | 22cpaid | +265.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x197c…9b94backed No | 67c | 2,000$1,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660 | 130 | 23.8%31 W · 99 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 10c | 1,145$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6944…7275backed Yes | 4c | 1,031$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.71 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…ef01backed No | 68c | 941.68$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.58 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca16…f878backed Yes | 33c | 899.99$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.5 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a34…7ca4backed No | 65c | 837.96$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.37 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaafe…4180backed Yes | 34c | 803.38$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.22 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd261…b663backed Yes | 21c | 730.08$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6c…5834backed Yes | 8c | 626.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x485d…47edbacked Yes | 18c | 436.09$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.5 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -6.6wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 29c | 372.21$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.21 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…0906backed No | 65c | 369.91$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.03 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +12.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 35c | 344.2$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.01 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +11.1wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x69a0…e5f6backed No | 63c | 331.39$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.24 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x108d…508abacked Yes | 19c | 325.6$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.01 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 20c | 303.17$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -12.9wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8e…0cc4backed Yes | 9c | 275.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 16cpaid | +295.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x63a4…2528backed No | 63c | 251.66$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.88 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +13.8wins | +0.42per pick | 31cpaid | +257.2%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked Yes | 11c | 250$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…9d98backed Yes | 32c | 237.35$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.2 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34c…6311backed Yes | 19c | 212.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 8c | 204$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 110 | 7.3%8 W · 102 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb5…69d3backed Yes | 38c | 202.11$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d59…bdf3backed No | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1547…d066backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…cba6backed No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -4.1wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…859dbacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4d…7670backed No | 77c | 195.44$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.44 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…4723backed No | 73c | 185$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.07 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b4…3c6ebacked Yes | 45c | 178.82$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.2 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 15c | 177.05$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed Yes | 20c | 163.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41cb…b72fbacked No | 78c | 163.33$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd47b…c715backed Yes | 18c | 140.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -4.1wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x233b…1f2cbacked No | 63c | 126.19$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.38 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 24c | 124.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb717…d819backed Yes | 25c | 121.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9620…5052backed Yes | 26c | 113.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.9wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 33c | 109.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.24per pick | 38cpaid | -73%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed Yes | 13c | 104.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x321d…ed56backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcec…d169backed Yes | 18c | 91.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e6…c078backed Yes | 32c | 90$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf67f…31cfbacked No | 63c | 88.76$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.84 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 52c | 84.27$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.81 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8270…2980backed No | 80c | 84.21$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0053…b066backed No | 62c | 79.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc7…dc1fbacked No | 70c | 60.62$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed Yes | 33c | 60.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 31c | 59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 30c | 56.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02d5…2fecbacked Yes | 36c | 53.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…3232backed Yes | 25c | 52.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0652…d87fbacked Yes | 34c | 52.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4761…9d09backed Yes | 34c | 52.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ba…e0a0backed Yes | 33c | 52.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5f…fe38backed No | 79c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad26…da90backed Yes | 23c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e6…4bd4backed No | 69c | 49.09$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56d3…e307backed No | 59c | 40.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed Yes | 44c | 36.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb119…680bbacked No | 69c | 33.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 74c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 48 | 91.7%44 W · 4 L | +9.0wins | +0.19per pick | 73cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x52f7…b1a8backed Yes | 50c | 20.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fda…3fd7backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 100 | 47%47 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over $35M committed to the RipCars public sale?this page
- Over $10M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $15M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $17.5M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $1M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $20M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $22.5M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $250k committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $25M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $27.5M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $2M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $30M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $32.5M committed to the RipCars public sale?No won
- Over $37.5M committed to the RipCars public sale?No won
- Over $3M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $40M committed to the RipCars public sale?No won
- Over $4M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $500k committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $50M committed to the RipCars public sale?No won
- Over $5M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $60M committed to the RipCars public sale?No won
- Over $6M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $70M committed to the RipCars public sale?No won
- Over $750k committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $7M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $8M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $9M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.