Token Launches · resolved market
Over $15M committed to the RipCars public sale?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x753b4280e4eb09d2b22bcf3dd41d1ed19ee136e6d4a37ad4148e769b70b5e97d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,803
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,948
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,803 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 1c | 1,964$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -12.9wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa09b…071ebacked No | 8c | 1,650$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.5 | 74 | 18.9%14 W · 60 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…fd72backed Yes | 34c | 1,208$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$797.42 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +6.4wins | +0.27per pick | 15cpaid | +220.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 5c | 1,100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.1 | 154 | 1.9%3 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6d…ed0bbacked No | 12c | 1,029$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.19 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x407c…49aabacked No | 3c | 741.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 14cpaid | +122.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x750b…978cbacked Yes | 80c | 674.17$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77e4…d18fbacked No | 67c | 599.98$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.99 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 64c | 400$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254 | 167 | 40.7%68 W · 99 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 66c | 378$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.48 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7402…6a0cbacked No | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce83…5b97backed No | 75c | 265.26$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…89bfbacked Yes | 33c | 240$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d59…bdf3backed No | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…0906backed Yes | 26c | 181.1$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.8 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +12.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…0268backed Yes | 24c | 152.61$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.99 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +38%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb637…4c42backed No | 74c | 150$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.5 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x845a…5606backed Yes | 30c | 140$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65d4…b7e3backed No | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 26c | 124.85$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.39 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 21c | 114$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 31c | 100.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.42 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -36%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1214…ebecbacked Yes | 19c | 94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.77 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +4.2wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +286.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 28c | 75.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3c23…e487backed Yes | 23c | 68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.36 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa79d…ee14backed No | 76c | 64.42$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e64…c43ebacked Yes | 33c | 61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.87 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +224.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x44d6…497fbacked Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb717…d819backed Yes | 26c | 43.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.18 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed Yes | 30c | 41.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 32c | 41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.94 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed No | 77c | 40.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02d5…2fecbacked Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1c…d9cfbacked Yes | 79c | 25.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108d…508abacked Yes | 79c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over $15M committed to the RipCars public sale?this page
- Over $10M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $17.5M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $1M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $20M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $22.5M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $250k committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $25M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $27.5M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $2M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $30M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $32.5M committed to the RipCars public sale?No won
- Over $35M committed to the RipCars public sale?No won
- Over $37.5M committed to the RipCars public sale?No won
- Over $3M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $40M committed to the RipCars public sale?No won
- Over $4M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $500k committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $50M committed to the RipCars public sale?No won
- Over $5M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $60M committed to the RipCars public sale?No won
- Over $6M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $70M committed to the RipCars public sale?No won
- Over $750k committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $7M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $8M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $9M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.