Token Launches · resolved market
Over $27.5M committed to the RipCars public sale?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7bf267aba7ad66bd68946e056a0ca65d41cf319772a4cec9522a4ddef6dfb866
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,414
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,201
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,414 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa87d…e4bfbacked No | 6c | 10,906$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.77 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa439…d01dbacked No | 7c | 3,429$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd261…b663backed No | 10c | 3,170$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.54 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa958…fecfbacked No | 5c | 2,019$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.99 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc008…6adfbacked No | 11c | 1,718$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…a26ebacked No | 4c | 1,300$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f82…2d74backed No | 10c | 1,043$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.17 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6d…ed0bbacked No | 10c | 1,017$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.47 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd9cc…8e26backed No | 5c | 999.85$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 825.35$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.06 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 2c | 676.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 171 | 2.9%5 W · 166 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed No | 11c | 599$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.94 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +260.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 4c | 523.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf67f…31cfbacked No | 9c | 485.21$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.02 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2a…637cbacked No | 6c | 484.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed No | 3c | 435.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 9c | 415.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.29 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 3c | 361.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked No | 7c | 317.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 79 | 19%15 W · 64 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7402…6a0cbacked No | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 6c | 294.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 8c | 170$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x108d…508abacked Yes | 65c | 168.36$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.22 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 8c | 149.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x845a…5606backed No | 29c | 140$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce83…5b97backed No | 72c | 139.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 29c | 90.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -12.9wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 48c | 87$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.76 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.24per pick | 38cpaid | -73%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 79c | 63.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed Yes | 29c | 63.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ead…f333backed No | 71c | 63.38$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfd…fbaabacked Yes | 77c | 52.17$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…4723backed Yes | 40c | 51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.64 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 49cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed No | 45c | 41.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fda…3fd7backed Yes | 71c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 100 | 47%47 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…7004backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…5630backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x357c…d728backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over $27.5M committed to the RipCars public sale?this page
- Over $10M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $15M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $17.5M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $1M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $20M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $22.5M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $250k committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $25M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $2M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $30M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $32.5M committed to the RipCars public sale?No won
- Over $35M committed to the RipCars public sale?No won
- Over $37.5M committed to the RipCars public sale?No won
- Over $3M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $40M committed to the RipCars public sale?No won
- Over $4M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $500k committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $50M committed to the RipCars public sale?No won
- Over $5M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $60M committed to the RipCars public sale?No won
- Over $6M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $70M committed to the RipCars public sale?No won
- Over $750k committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $7M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $8M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
- Over $9M committed to the RipCars public sale?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.