TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Over $50M committed to the RipCars public sale?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$27,902
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$26,610

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,902 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd261…b663backed Yes11c5,881$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.0970%0 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0015…d5b0backed Yes6c3,864$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.131020%2 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-50.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed Yes2c2,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-75.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes2c1,945$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.582061.9%4 W · 202 L+1.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid+62.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c933.56$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.997663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e8e…0cc4backed Yes3c508.39$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.272231.8%7 W · 15 L+3.4wins+0.16per pick16cpaid+295.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x108d…508abacked Yes4c478.75$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.594938.8%19 W · 30 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-38.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes21c401.26$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.984027.5%11 W · 29 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-12%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes8c378$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.242722.2%6 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-44.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0b4…3c6ebacked Yes10c210$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212030%6 W · 14 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick22cpaid+48.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x44d6…497fbacked Yes9c200$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+36.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd725…e66ebacked Yes11c189.1$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf64…9390backed Yes6c180$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x444c…9d2ebacked Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142213.6%3 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick23cpaid-71.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x06dc…fd72backed Yes12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122441.7%10 W · 14 L+6.4wins+0.27per pick15cpaid+220.6%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xd397…5f62backed Yes21c60.2$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.64520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-68%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.