Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3284ff2fc65da5ad8020b0c1dd0190b0a66052b2df35f73ca057b200c71a012
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,777
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,447
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,777 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8469…dab0backed Yes | 29c | 972.36$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.85 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5f…634dbacked Yes | 41c | 818.45$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.8 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed No | 62c | 599.67$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.91 | 104 | 33.7%35 W · 69 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…12cfbacked Yes | 49c | 399.95$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 39c | 358$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.62 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 51c | 233.73$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.36 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 219.18$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.24 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 33c | 203.83$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.16 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…c1c4backed Yes | 36c | 202.16$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.23 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +6.8wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 64c | 160$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 65cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3872…bb1dbacked No | 49c | 148.02$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.49 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +136.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ba…3e29backed No | 70c | 142.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 37c | 134.14$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.43 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 38c | 133$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.17 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0594…90a5backed No | 60c | 125.74$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 60c | 120$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.2 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 111$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x709b…0a0abacked Yes | 48c | 104.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +146.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 40c | 96.65$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7238…4faebacked Yes | 40c | 90$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1840…6798backed No | 64c | 77.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca2…1798backed Yes | 42c | 73.8$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes | 37c | 61.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb51c…502dbacked No | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a7…d618backed No | 57c | 58.81$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…7feabacked Yes | 40c | 58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0627…13cfbacked Yes | 51c | 56.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…5658backed No | 73c | 56.51$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…e1ccbacked No | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 52c | 54.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed No | 64c | 53.12$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 58cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4947…a7b3backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked No | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea34…5630backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad7…9075backed Yes | 63c | 49.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfc…288cbacked Yes | 50c | 45.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67c7…c392backed Yes | 50c | 43.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 76c | 43.04$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 33c | 42.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 309 | 18.1%56 W · 253 L | -29.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x149e…594dbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa44a…cd7dbacked Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 79c | 39.6$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 74c | 37.21$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 62c | 35.73$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43eb…3d85backed Yes | 33c | 34.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1964…5e04backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec49…5975backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18c7…b3d1backed No | 55c | 29.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 72c | 28.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -21%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed No | 56c | 28.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 50c | 28.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…f3c8backed Yes | 39c | 27.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 50c | 25.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaeb…5a2abacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 51c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c15…5b4bbacked No | 69c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 50c | 20.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…782fbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5014…80f4backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0041…967cbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f0…b245backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…3998backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x965b…e530backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 70c | 17.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 68c | 16.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in July?this page
- Will the US add between 0 and 50k jobs in July?No won
- Will the US add between 100k and 150k jobs in July?No won
- Will the US add between 150k and 200k jobs in July?No won
- Will the US lose jobs in July?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.