TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0594…90a5

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
69
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Ukraine, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Ukraine at 54 out of 100; worst Commodities at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weather Inactivelast resolved Aug 3, 2026, EDT3839.5%15 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 38 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on August 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.45
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on July 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.5
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on May 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$2.73
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 82°F or higher on May 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.15
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.11
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on May 11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.5
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on January 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on January 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$12.5
Will the highest temperature in London be 3°C on January 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST+300%+$37.5
Will the highest temperature in London be 2°C on January 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$27.5
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 30-31°F on January 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+66.7%+$8
Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on January 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+47.1%+$6.4
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 34°F or higher on January 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+100%+$10
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on December 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on December 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST+100%+$25
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on December 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on December 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST+300%+$37.5
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on December 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$12.5
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on December 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$12.5
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on December 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$12.5
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on December 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$27.5
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on December 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST+48%+$6.7
Showing 25 of 38 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT1118.2%2 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick19cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.88
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$38
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.8
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.6
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.8
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.2
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.1
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.4
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+316.7%+$38
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+300%+$30
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10.2
All 11 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jun 6, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick16cpaid-47.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tennis — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
All 2 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.93per pick7cpaid+1,438.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+1,438.5%+$186.98
All 1 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Aug 7, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+67.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT+67.7%+$50.74
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Oct 29, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved May 26, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
World Championships: Sweden vs. Slovakiabacked Slovakia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.