Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1698c745b7d9e7665fcc2b74c79aa53533f4b30ead48d1962d60f96fc9cdbdfa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,989
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,630
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,989 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 189 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 60c | 749.73$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.23 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 30c | 663.03$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.56 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 42c | 604.84$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.91 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 68c | 576.74$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.24 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7231…5afebacked No | 71c | 562.78$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.37 | 96 | 34.4%33 W · 63 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 52c | 543.53$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.43 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 45c | 527.98$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.24 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 58c | 515.96$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.47 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 70c | 440.44$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.04 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 43c | 425$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.69 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x109c…9cc4backed Yes | 72c | 423.26$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.54 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 32c | 419.67$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.86 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 32c | 412.14$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.5 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 38c | 411.88$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.44 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 56c | 390.1$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.73 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 69c | 378.53$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.72 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 33c | 370.51$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.64 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76b8…1c88backed Yes | 50c | 349.8$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.41 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xced2…0d6bbacked No | 64c | 334.78$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.54 | 156 | 69.2%108 W · 48 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb286…aac7backed No | 73c | 322.68$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.09 | 87 | 26.4%23 W · 64 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32c9…5a3ebacked Yes | 31c | 320$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.2 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 49c | 304.05$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.72 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7827…a351backed Yes | 34c | 289.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.43 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 60c | 277.25$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.18 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 12c | 265.62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 35c | 262.19$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.61 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1337…b79fbacked Yes | 31c | 238.81$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.81 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +136.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 30c | 235.32$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.47 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes | 29c | 230$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.49 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 219.37$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.13 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 54c | 218.26$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.65 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c54…f0bbbacked Yes | 46c | 216.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.97 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3225…d1cfbacked Yes | 35c | 206.26$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.14 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 25c | 200$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.76 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca9…fe9cbacked Yes | 31c | 198.61$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.93 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 36c | 197.73$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.43 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 28c | 191.57$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.15 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 31c | 187.33$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.25 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 60c | 186.34$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.95 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3478…d770backed Yes | 55c | 182.76$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.76 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23b2…605cbacked No | 63c | 181.88$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94ce…edf2backed Yes | 41c | 180$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.9 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 64c | 174.69$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.4 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 32c | 170.35$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.55 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed Yes | 34c | 168.13$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.92 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 35c | 167.4$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.24 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 33c | 157.9$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.32 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391a…9d8fbacked Yes | 33c | 151.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.74 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 7c | 151.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 20c | 149.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5c05…416cbacked Yes | 32c | 148.27$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.67 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -48%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aab…ead7backed Yes | 44c | 135.78$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.78 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde9b…467fbacked Yes | 37c | 134.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.09 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 69c | 133.25$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.44 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes | 45c | 133.2$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.32 | 149 | 32.9%49 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 49c | 126.84$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.14 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 34c | 125.12$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.84 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c3…73fdbacked Yes | 38c | 124.36$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.85 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 71c | 122.44$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.94 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa255…5cbcbacked Yes | 43c | 120.33$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.13 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcda9…fee5backed No | 56c | 117.49$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.72 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 75c | 115.15$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdafd…2ad4backed No | 22c | 111.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 27c | 109.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.17 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 36c | 103.19$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.64 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked Yes | 29c | 102.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.62 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2baa…c5bdbacked No | 14c | 101.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0594…90a5backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea19…f354backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.8 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 54c | 98.94$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.29 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 31c | 98.84$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.84 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 26c | 97.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.22 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…abcebacked Yes | 44c | 94.74$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.5 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x531b…da26backed Yes | 31c | 92.11$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.87 | 127 | 33.1%42 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 33c | 91.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.81 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 90$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc603…e174backed Yes | 36c | 89.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 30c | 86.54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.39 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d7…2305backed No | 56c | 86.04$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 68c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 36c | 79.2$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.08 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 63c | 79.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.19 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 70c | 78.37$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 66c | 78.15$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.75 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 64c | 78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 70c | 77.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 57c | 76.87$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.93 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 66c | 75.83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 63c | 75.11$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.21 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 36c | 71.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.07 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…7ddabacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 19cpaid | +147%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 68.44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe564…4bcdbacked Yes | 38c | 66.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.59 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 71c | 66$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.62 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 69c | 65.86$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.44 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…c001backed Yes | 41c | 65.69$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f30…1f71backed Yes | 77c | 64.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 24c | 64.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.78 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C or higher on May 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.