Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x855e0786977b28553d702e45413038421a96701220d39f1b3b48344f0108aeae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,391
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,030
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,391 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3240…fae2backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked Yes | 2c | 7,122$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.45 | 112 | 27.7%31 W · 81 L | +12.3wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +175.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 4c | 2,925$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.13 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 6c | 2,049$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0591…cc74backed Yes | 4c | 965.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 8c | 848.16$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.73 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 4c | 764.32$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 1,866 | 25.4%474 W · 1,392 L | +134.7wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 2c | 699.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 985 | 13.8%136 W · 849 L | +34.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 3c | 699.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 298 | 32.2%96 W · 202 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc60c…cdeebacked Yes | 6c | 584.3$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +103.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 6c | 549.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 8c | 522.46$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.43 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 5c | 499.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 1,301 | 32.9%428 W · 873 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca9…fe9cbacked Yes | 7c | 464.95$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 2c | 460.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 3c | 327.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 1,093 | 29.6%324 W · 769 L | +36.9wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…98d0backed Yes | 6c | 327.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 8c | 258.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7231…5afebacked Yes | 8c | 234.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 96 | 34.4%33 W · 63 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…a4a4backed Yes | 6c | 230.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 192 | 17.2%33 W · 159 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 10c | 226.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 7c | 219.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 8c | 177.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 7,592 | 37.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L | +96.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 172.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 2,839 | 11.2%317 W · 2,522 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C or higher on May 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.