TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 24?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$35,574
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$33,395

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,574 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 175 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x32c9…5a3ebacked Yes12c1,190$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.857628.9%22 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes5c1,152$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.5614932.9%49 W · 100 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf695…c30abacked Yes13c852.08$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.1120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes17c829.99$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.651,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes23c761.25$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.6256434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdafd…2ad4backed Yes21c693.79$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.6412228.7%35 W · 87 L+9.2wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+38.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbda1…827fbacked Yes26c692.15$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18030919.4%60 W · 249 L-17.1wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-50.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No72c659.68$478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.7876755.4%425 W · 342 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7231…5afebacked No79c644.36$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.589634.4%33 W · 63 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa054…a95dbacked No80c615.13$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.6239966.2%264 W · 135 L+33.6wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+20.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No70c612$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.865,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No78c549.12$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.3799963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes8c548.38$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.662,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes43c524$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.8342130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No68c514.75$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.182,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes17c504.67$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.871,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No77c419.4$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.0565965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x302c…abcebacked Yes20c417.85$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.1216724.6%41 W · 126 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No69c390.1$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.285,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3478…d770backed Yes49c386.55$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1904940.8%20 W · 29 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes34c353.19$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.821,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed No71c335.51$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.8271159.2%421 W · 290 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes45c333.6$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15017135.1%60 W · 111 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No60c324.29$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.413,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa255…5cbcbacked Yes8c296.37$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.013145.2%14 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-14.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes16c269.42$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.837,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x5fe7…1ea9backed No75c266.39$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.3915570.3%109 W · 46 L+23.6wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+16.2%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes14c263.82$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.291,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No71c246.9$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.674,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes41c229.99$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.410439.4%41 W · 63 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+22.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes30c225.04$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.2620534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No74c218.26$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.692,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes40c212.44$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.683,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes14c202.17$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2916836.3%61 W · 107 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-0.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd06f…6719backed No69c201.04$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.1392028.7%264 W · 656 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes20c199.1$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No73c194.6$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.971,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c54…f0bbbacked Yes52c193.75$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-46.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No59c188.29$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.7983459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No77c187.33$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.951,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No72c184.73$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.51,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94ce…edf2backed Yes37c181.34$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.535648.2%27 W · 29 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick40cpaid-3.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed Yes38c171.25$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.2360054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x11fc…8262backed Yes29c168.33$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9537942.2%160 W · 219 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f12…9424backed No78c168.26$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.2617553.7%94 W · 81 L+9.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+14.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb3eb…b529backed Yes14c166.92$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9461629.4%181 W · 435 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes23c165.76$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.231,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x896a…fda0backed Yes12c162.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-35.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes9c159.29$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57ef…4b15backed Yes43c156.05$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.8712941.9%54 W · 75 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes41c145.76$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.795933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No57c143.22$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.2312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ca9…fe9cbacked Yes26c140.44$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.74628.3%13 W · 33 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-27.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x261e…c09fbacked Yes26c140$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.411835.6%42 W · 76 L+0.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a26…c335backed Yes22c136$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9286226.8%231 W · 631 L+28.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ff7…82c5backed Yes24c134.21$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.311515.7%18 W · 97 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No78c133.25$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.481,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No62c133$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.364,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xad64…4a5cbacked Yes22c132.5$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.238337.3%31 W · 52 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes8c130.98$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.291,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes27c129.48$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.763,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No77c125.34$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.019,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No50c120$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6031649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No73c118.51$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.522,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No77c118.42$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.082,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x068a…f8bdbacked Yes26c117.53$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6313…1db9backed Yes13c116.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No77c116.15$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.682,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe399…b921backed No74c115.32$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.497150.7%36 W · 35 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-20.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb427…4c62backed No78c105.78$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.7322350.7%113 W · 110 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe564…4bcdbacked Yes28c101.37$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.772532%8 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea19…f354backed Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2874338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x391a…9d8fbacked Yes53c95.19$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503636.1%13 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57ce…d8e2backed Yes27c94.15$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258234.1%28 W · 54 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc60c…cdeebacked Yes14c90$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.25812.1%7 W · 51 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick20cpaid+103.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5868…64c8backed No80c89.84$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.121747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick58cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No78c89.81$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.8189661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef14…3edabacked Yes30c89.33$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2717744.6%79 W · 98 L-10.1wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No79c89$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.7298565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf70…8f19backed Yes23c87$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7713941.7%58 W · 81 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No72c85.1$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.832,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x531b…da26backed Yes47c80.2$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.8112733.1%42 W · 85 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes31c79.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.653,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x143c…487ebacked Yes25c79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205831%18 W · 40 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-22.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8947…4635backed No76c78.73$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.063775.7%28 W · 9 L+6.1wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+45.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No77c78.13$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.975,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xced2…0d6bbacked No55c75.15$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.4915669.2%108 W · 48 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No50c75$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.51,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf576…a786backed No72c69.89$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.5737669.4%261 W · 115 L+1.6wins0.00per pick69cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e5d…9491backed No72c69.44$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.4430859.1%182 W · 126 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes21c68.84$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4615818.4%29 W · 129 L-8.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-37.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x109c…9cc4backed Yes44c68.66$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.382227.3%6 W · 16 L-3.2wins-0.15per pick42cpaid-57.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9151…a93ebacked No48c66.04$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.0411164%71 W · 40 L+7.1wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+70.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb8b6…3b38backed No80c62.64$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6447175.6%356 W · 115 L+2.1wins0.00per pick75cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes28c61.6$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes22c61.25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6564333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0832…8681backed Yes48c61$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4934651.2%177 W · 169 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa10c…c0d8backed No77c60.75$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.21922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick39cpaid-71.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed No79c60$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.650373.2%368 W · 135 L+25.3wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.