Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 3°C on January 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf38968e94088c7d4ed0ac225b547d3c3339da5a47188fef141fd9c084016fab0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,403
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,260
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,403 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa629…fe39backed Yes | 60c | 1,945$1,164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.12 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec3a…a709backed No | 25c | 796.63$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.91 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bdf…d53ebacked No | 2c | 651.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -34%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 62c | 510.54$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.07 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed No | 10c | 362.1$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.64 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 42c | 299.98$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.59 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x095c…d20cbacked Yes | 40c | 256.54$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.89 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 65c | 211.94$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.63 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 45c | 208.5$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.2 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2380…ba2ebacked No | 60c | 199.4$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f53…9bb4backed Yes | 80c | 183.5$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 56c | 181.6$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.4 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd17…9bfbbacked No | 6c | 180.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 72c | 178.86$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.56 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x08cf…8cbcbacked Yes | 35c | 164.89$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.66 | 107 | 51.4%55 W · 52 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed No | 70c | 160$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85b5…1948backed Yes | 28c | 114.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.19 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 26c | 107.83$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.74 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7b…bd59backed No | 40c | 105.27$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.27 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 20c | 100.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.12 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 38c | 99.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 60c | 99.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 14c | 95.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x8278…9464backed Yes | 32c | 93.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.69 | 132 | 50%66 W · 66 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 29c | 88.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 52c | 86.81$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.98 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 20c | 80.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.89 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadad…8fa5backed Yes | 36c | 70.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.39 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 68.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…afb9backed No | 80c | 68.59$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.87 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…0aa4backed Yes | 32c | 62.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.42 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 28c | 62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.69 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 51c | 59.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed No | 19c | 54.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbda…379fbacked Yes | 61c | 54.59$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b5…6d52backed Yes | 70c | 50.77$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0594…90a5backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4c…8447backed Yes | 32c | 46.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc00a…2424backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f7…761ebacked Yes | 49c | 45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb009…b498backed Yes | 37c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c7…2556backed Yes | 59c | 33.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5889…2770backed Yes | 41c | 32.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45ff…9856backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe792…7fecbacked Yes | 64c | 28.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6c…f0b6backed Yes | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked No | 68c | 23.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8b…b15ebacked No | 57c | 22.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x886b…73d1backed No | 75c | 17.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…1a57backed Yes | 66c | 15.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 3°C on January 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 0°C on January 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 1°C on January 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 2°C on January 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 4°C on January 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 5°C or higher on January 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.