Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 2°C on January 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb152ac64746057c498e5aeaff6820f275841baa81337f39ec725048678ab3ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,115
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,976
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,115 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8278…9464backed No | 36c | 880.72$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.81 | 132 | 50%66 W · 66 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 55c | 850$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.5 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1005…a843backed Yes | 65c | 550$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -68%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 7c | 504.11$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa629…fe39backed Yes | 66c | 462.16$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.76 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 5c | 426.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 39c | 411.2$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.17 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b5…6d52backed No | 77c | 340.55$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.76 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…8c71backed Yes | 69c | 289.83$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed No | 41c | 280.33$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.9 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 47c | 279.15$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.25 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba6a…787dbacked Yes | 45c | 249.57$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd17…9bfbbacked No | 49c | 203.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.7 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…352ebacked No | 31c | 200$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 175 | 32%56 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1805…4571backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 199.98$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.98 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0bdf…d53ebacked No | 57c | 184.84$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.93 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -34%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked Yes | 64c | 180$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.4 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1854…1a80backed No | 36c | 176.56$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.79 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…f575backed Yes | 66c | 150.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…86abbacked Yes | 69c | 145.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 33c | 139.48$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.9 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 20c | 131.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 52c | 112.14$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.72 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85b5…1948backed Yes | 65c | 111.16$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.34 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…1757backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 65c | 78.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 59c | 75.02$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.46 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x195e…5b32backed Yes | 29c | 74.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36c7…2556backed Yes | 68c | 73.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 48c | 63.6$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 25c | 55.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0594…90a5backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7b…bd59backed No | 33c | 49.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 32c | 48.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 32c | 46.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.73 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef3…519dbacked No | 44c | 45.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.69 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbdf…4981backed Yes | 52c | 37.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 42c | 34.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45ff…9856backed Yes | 63c | 34.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a89…0e5dbacked Yes | 69c | 34.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 32c | 31.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70f7…7ea9backed Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d48…2e2abacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…71eebacked Yes | 67c | 29.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…4d7bbacked No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 183 | 68.9%126 W · 57 L | +25.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x998a…745bbacked Yes | 55c | 24.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x095c…d20cbacked Yes | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x224d…dd48backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe43b…c3d0backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb009…b498backed Yes | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…bb08backed Yes | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 2°C on January 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 0°C on January 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 1°C on January 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 3°C on January 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 4°C on January 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 5°C or higher on January 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.