Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on May 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73e4ce40b59400e80b42fb623ac7a9662ae5c59944b08a0fff9b8adae57b02ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,815
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,974
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,815 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 9c | 625.24$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.76 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x840a…63ccbacked Yes | 51c | 537.52$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.76 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 3c | 450$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 74c | 435.21$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.68 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 9c | 311.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb460…6424backed Yes | 10c | 272.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 39c | 245.38$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.78 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 228.82$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.26 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 220$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.54 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2b…bf2abacked Yes | 30c | 199.38$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.35 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…8f49backed Yes | 6c | 177.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 11c | 167.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 17c | 154.03$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 23c | 138$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 137.58$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.52 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5728…d2b2backed Yes | 8c | 137.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…4162backed Yes | 27c | 134$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 132$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.01 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 26c | 131.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 74c | 111.39$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 111$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.33 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x824e…a712backed Yes | 29c | 100.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3df3…c0d0backed Yes | 41c | 97.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 55c | 77$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.33 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed No | 74c | 76.96$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 20c | 75.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 71$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 69.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 64c | 68.76$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 30c | 66.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba9…9c5bbacked No | 66c | 65$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 68c | 63.9$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x506b…b0febacked Yes | 34c | 62.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 17c | 61.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 29c | 59.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 17c | 59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32e0…3884backed Yes | 27c | 56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…31b5backed Yes | 54c | 55.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 95 | 36.8%35 W · 60 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 65c | 54$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 36c | 52.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd5…4390backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 34c | 49.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 25c | 49.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 64c | 48.9$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…4cfdbacked Yes | 30c | 47.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +5.4wins | +0.24per pick | 39cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…7b51backed No | 70c | 47.25$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 66c | 47.14$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.26 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 43$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 30c | 39.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x407e…5bf0backed No | 68c | 35.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 75c | 34.92$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 72c | 34.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 73c | 32.27$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…da03backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 36cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 37c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 28.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d81…fe57backed Yes | 40c | 28.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 53c | 27.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 46c | 25.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd52e…8f98backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -7.2wins | -0.28per pick | 66cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x587c…603fbacked No | 75c | 24.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 56 | 71.4%40 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 67c | 23.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 64c | 23.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 21.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x746d…2db5backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 74 | 67.6%50 W · 24 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 71c | 18.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 71c | 17.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 76c | 16.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 70c | 15.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0594…90a5backed No | 79c | 12.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on May 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 65°F or below on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 84°F or higher on May 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on May 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.