Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 84°F or higher on May 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7a801c915021e0fe09a3fe927d71456df8f2ce0e57e9d06c6f5aabb323ebf87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,599
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,809
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,599 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 644.26$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.39 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 435.99$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.76 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 21c | 435$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.98 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae3…8262backed No | 4c | 370$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 33c | 303.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.74 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 30c | 296.62$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.67 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 33c | 270.59$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.93 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 77c | 269.06$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.99 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 56c | 256.42$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.49 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eaa…3561backed Yes | 38c | 248$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.26 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 62c | 199.61$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.85 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 27c | 190.63$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.03 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 28c | 183.86$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.05 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x506b…b0febacked Yes | 38c | 174.37$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.72 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59dd…7cffbacked Yes | 50c | 167.63$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.43 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed No | 33c | 156.11$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.77 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…8f49backed No | 10c | 152.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 70c | 150$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.5 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 32c | 141.91$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.95 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x828b…87a6backed Yes | 27c | 138.87$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.38 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb8…7c99backed Yes | 80c | 121.31$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…1bc5backed Yes | 40c | 119.06$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.09 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 71c | 114.28$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.55 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2632…6475backed Yes | 69c | 106.98$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.96 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 41c | 105.84$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.87 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed Yes | 25c | 101.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.52 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x840a…63ccbacked No | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 62c | 96.79$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.95 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 68c | 94.48$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.12 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 92.54$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.63 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 36c | 86.79$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 27c | 86.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.81 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 40c | 85$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.24 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d46…f816backed Yes | 41c | 82.81$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.22 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked No | 68c | 81.81$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.33 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdc…a0babacked No | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed Yes | 64c | 77.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.61 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 30c | 72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.24 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 27c | 71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbce1…712bbacked No | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 23c | 57.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 66c | 57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2b…bf2abacked No | 30c | 55.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 58c | 50.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ead…8046backed No | 77c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.42 | 46 | 84.8%39 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 77cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 42c | 49.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 24c | 49.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.76 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 21c | 49.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.33 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed No | 77c | 48$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 57c | 46.53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 32c | 42.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.87 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba9…9c5bbacked No | 61c | 42.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 76c | 41.69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.58 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 63c | 40.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed Yes | 36c | 39.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 30c | 37.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d81…fe57backed No | 31c | 35.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 35c | 32.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0457…af98backed No | 62c | 32.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 56c | 28.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 60c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…fc14backed No | 49c | 27.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd52e…8f98backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -7.2wins | -0.28per pick | 66cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3df3…c0d0backed Yes | 68c | 24.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe57c…b99bbacked Yes | 41c | 24.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.36per pick | 30cpaid | +170.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 43c | 23.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 77c | 23.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 64c | 22.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 77c | 21.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 62c | 20.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x050e…9ac6backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x599f…3317backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 125 | 78.4%98 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 63c | 19.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47cf…5732backed No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 70cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No | 73c | 19.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 119 | 77.3%92 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed No | 79c | 19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41c3…4d56backed No | 79c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb830…2ff3backed Yes | 71c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 70c | 17.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc176…5d01backed Yes | 76c | 17.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89f1…52e4backed No | 71c | 16.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 69c | 16.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…0cf2backed No | 68c | 16.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 77c | 15.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 75c | 15.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…8239backed Yes | 79c | 14.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 128 | 53.9%69 W · 59 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 84°F or higher on May 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 65°F or below on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on May 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.