Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on January 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe3a65921a37c56a6e7497672a39c3a39cfa20f0c46eec866c8be767af969d61
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,673
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,547
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,673 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x522b…e2a6backed Yes | 78c | 507.44$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.48 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed No | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 59c | 376.24$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.13 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 68c | 309.29$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.44 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 42c | 274.84$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.4 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 38c | 225$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.75 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5f…e63cbacked Yes | 51c | 199.99$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 199.97$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a07…3a69backed Yes | 69c | 178.65$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.65 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2818…5369backed Yes | 59c | 170$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a29…8b9ebacked No | 63c | 134.06$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 43c | 125.89$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.56 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa33…1ea9backed Yes | 67c | 105.26$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.26 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +94.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 38c | 101.66$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.05 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…352ebacked Yes | 49c | 96.26$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.09 | 175 | 32%56 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58d8…dd19backed No | 34c | 70.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6194…b314backed No | 35c | 65.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 39c | 63.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.62 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…1757backed Yes | 32c | 56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.08 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f7…761ebacked Yes | 80c | 55.08$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e4…d1f7backed Yes | 36c | 54.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.6 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bdf…d53ebacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -34%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed No | 41c | 49.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab2b…1ecabacked Yes | 73c | 45.42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb856…0615backed No | 35c | 37.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc00a…2424backed Yes | 42c | 36.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes | 58c | 34.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x64a4…c103backed Yes | 61c | 33.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70f7…7ea9backed Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4272…5ab0backed Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfef1…c407backed Yes | 56c | 26.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x578f…f112backed Yes | 61c | 20.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0594…90a5backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7552…5845backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on January 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 2°C or below on January 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 3°C on January 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 4°C on January 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 5°C on January 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on January 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C or higher on January 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.