Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on January 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5642bc51d12cdbc131b05dd8c72b23e73e1cba6f7cddd197c7738d1739c53336
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,267
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,229
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,267 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,097$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa629…fe39backed No | 65c | 774.4$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.52 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 31c | 701.34$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.67 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…0861backed Yes | 3c | 422.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 247 | 10.5%26 W · 221 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2818…5369backed Yes | 52c | 318.58$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef5…4cc6backed No | 70c | 277.56$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.27 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -3.0wins | -0.43per pick | 71cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 39c | 277$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.34 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x522b…e2a6backed Yes | 30c | 235$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 47c | 214.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5f…e63cbacked Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b5…6d52backed Yes | 35c | 155$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08cf…8cbcbacked Yes | 32c | 148.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 107 | 51.4%55 W · 52 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked No | 65c | 131.2$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.44 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 12c | 120$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8b…b15ebacked Yes | 31c | 113.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 30c | 110$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x578f…f112backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 58c | 97.13$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.49 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed Yes | 12c | 95.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 85 | 16.5%14 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x142c…9ee5backed Yes | 14c | 77.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77ea…9e00backed Yes | 39c | 67.61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb009…b498backed Yes | 44c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed Yes | 26c | 54.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes | 40c | 50.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe523…09ddbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35d6…30bdbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 57cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 53c | 49.05$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked Yes | 36c | 44.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…0aa4backed Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x487d…465fbacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1005…a843backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -68%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked No | 60c | 20.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed No | 54c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…c307backed No | 70c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 68cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97a2…fa4dbacked No | 78c | 18.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on January 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 2°C or below on January 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 3°C on January 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 4°C on January 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 5°C on January 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on January 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C or higher on January 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.