NHL · resolved market
World Championships: Sweden vs. Slovakia
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf98957661241c2b06ddf5d27faeea54af475d5965cf9457942eda700eacdc5bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Swedenof Sweden, Slovakia
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,161
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,196
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,161 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Slovakia | 28c | 5,756$1,586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,585.76 | 236 | 42.8%101 W · 135 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe504…600ebacked Sweden | 72c | 2,197$1,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.92 | 270 | 44.4%120 W · 150 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Sweden | 73c | 2,033$1,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.68 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Sweden | 73c | 1,654$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd604…cb5fbacked Sweden | 76c | 1,414$1,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.33 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd15…4a07backed Slovakia | 22c | 1,332$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.04 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Slovakia | 29c | 1,204$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.39 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Sweden | 75c | 749.33$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.75 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -8.3wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea5…6548backed Slovakia | 16c | 742.61$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Slovakia | 23c | 683.32$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.25 | 80 | 43.8%35 W · 45 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Slovakia | 25c | 559.62$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.96 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54ea…f74abacked Sweden | 78c | 500$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf960…fcbfbacked Slovakia | 8c | 499.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Sweden | 74c | 455$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.54 | 100 | 66%66 W · 34 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4e…c3c3backed Slovakia | 25c | 407.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 215 | 34.4%74 W · 141 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fef…d075backed Sweden | 75c | 326.67$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x898e…b120backed Slovakia | 24c | 286$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Slovakia | 23c | 272.46$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Sweden | 78c | 245.16$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.94 | 514 | 52.3%269 W · 245 L | +17.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd12…7091backed Sweden | 78c | 230.82$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe123…b4ffbacked Sweden | 74c | 198$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.56 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Sweden | 76c | 180.7$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.37 | 310 | 47.4%147 W · 163 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Slovakia | 28c | 180$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Sweden | 79c | 165.41$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.94 | 323 | 53.9%174 W · 149 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c5…6483backed Sweden | 73c | 164.89$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.89 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Slovakia | 41c | 150.31$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.96 | 138 | 41.3%57 W · 81 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Slovakia | 29c | 147.9$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.55 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Slovakia | 26c | 135.14$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.14 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9abb…3f96backed Sweden | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 95 | 62.1%59 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9235…3fbdbacked Sweden | 74c | 135.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.13 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 68cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Slovakia | 26c | 135.12$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.13 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd7…db07backed Sweden | 75c | 133.6$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 242 | 59.1%143 W · 99 L | +8.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Sweden | 72c | 132.56$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.98 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Sweden | 65c | 129.51$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.12 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc4…0705backed Sweden | 72c | 124.77$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.94 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b0…e756backed Slovakia | 13c | 119.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8492…f17cbacked Slovakia | 25c | 113.73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb533…9703backed Slovakia | 20c | 110$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x964e…36cfbacked Slovakia | 23c | 100.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0594…90a5backed Slovakia | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52c1…1084backed Slovakia | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Slovakia | 26c | 99.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 924 | 44.5%411 W · 513 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5d…b676backed Sweden | 72c | 99.96$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -72%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Slovakia | 28c | 96.61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 315 | 40.3%127 W · 188 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd47b…c715backed Sweden | 73c | 95.89$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa5…4f56backed Sweden | 77c | 95.62$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15c5…4692backed Sweden | 75c | 93.32$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 279 | 47.3%132 W · 147 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5f…cf7cbacked Slovakia | 27c | 84.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b9…5942backed Sweden | 78c | 83.24$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x08be…c3b0backed Slovakia | 29c | 79.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Slovakia | 25c | 78.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x060c…cc30backed Slovakia | 14c | 72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4674…4727backed Sweden | 74c | 64.82$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Sweden | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Sweden | 62c | 53.24$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc70…7db5backed Sweden | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x929d…7ee3backed Slovakia | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f7…8af4backed Sweden | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ab…723dbacked Sweden | 79c | 49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d7…0dedbacked Sweden | 75c | 48.22$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfed5…ee90backed Sweden | 75c | 48.01$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c66…5f14backed Slovakia | 43c | 46.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5132…61a7backed Slovakia | 29c | 44.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3207…e248backed Slovakia | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e73…2f39backed Sweden | 79c | 37.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca3…ec90backed Sweden | 73c | 37.55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7175…5a88backed Sweden | 70c | 35.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98f1…7206backed Slovakia | 28c | 35.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a88…4e57backed Sweden | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89c5…ce1bbacked Sweden | 80c | 31.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…2c5abacked Slovakia | 54c | 30.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x782f…13bdbacked Slovakia | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Sweden | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fa…5640backed Sweden | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Sweden | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Slovakia | 45c | 24.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +7.4wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c8…5471backed Sweden | 71c | 21.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Sweden | 74c | 20.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x478f…5715backed Sweden | 72c | 20.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e22…eeb5backed Sweden | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x097c…630abacked Sweden | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ab…33ccbacked Sweden | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a03…bf72backed Sweden | 74c | 16.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.