Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on December 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14e078cd1a940368fa4870cf31cdb45d953b48b6f5eb877a90ce0a702c46e887
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,071
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,433
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,071 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd4d0…af08backed Yes | 80c | 857.36$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.47 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 71c | 641.94$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.23 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 18c | 599.99$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.45 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…0861backed Yes | 55c | 430.21$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.88 | 247 | 10.5%26 W · 221 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…352ebacked No | 27c | 400$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 175 | 32%56 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cd…453cbacked Yes | 77c | 398.48$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.64 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes | 67c | 343.27$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.61 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 40c | 300.3$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.28 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c1…c739backed Yes | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 68c | 199.99$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 199.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2a29…8b9ebacked No | 45c | 197.5$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked Yes | 61c | 185.82$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.2 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 46c | 171.25$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.49 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 33c | 170$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.5 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 15c | 139.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x227f…41e3backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6e…02cfbacked Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.3 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x998a…745bbacked Yes | 66c | 90.9$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 28c | 88.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.22 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 33c | 80$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.6 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc00a…2424backed Yes | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe353…d040backed No | 49c | 73.39$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.24 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 50c | 66.3$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.32 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4129…40c6backed Yes | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0231…45d0backed Yes | 68c | 58.26$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 121 | 24.8%30 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 66c | 53.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 45c | 50.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 42c | 42.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2008…db59backed Yes | 61c | 41.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83e1…6993backed No | 56c | 40.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 38c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…b953backed No | 57c | 33.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d2…d439backed Yes | 65c | 30.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7de…d520backed Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 43c | 29.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9f…3fb6backed Yes | 46c | 26.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f9…9adbbacked Yes | 61c | 24.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -6.2wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0594…90a5backed Yes | 68c | 20.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f8…503abacked Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 112 | 28.6%32 W · 80 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on December 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on December 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on December 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C or higher on December 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.