Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on December 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0388351728f876a59b346b7cae89e77aced5191730dc97793f255a2aa561bcd9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,442
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,613
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,442 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 24c | 649.71$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.53 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb905…1640backed Yes | 50c | 492.5$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.23 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed No | 75c | 400$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…f74dbacked Yes | 70c | 390.17$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.28 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 47c | 330.66$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.83 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 28c | 301.75$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.75 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 56c | 248.29$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.88 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3c…b4b8backed Yes | 39c | 239.29$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.94 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 45c | 212.47$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.4 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 40c | 208.33$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.55 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc55f…d26abacked Yes | 42c | 203.62$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.28 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe204…cfb5backed No | 80c | 190.18$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.84 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e8e…e539backed Yes | 30c | 167.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.12 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5f…d443backed Yes | 57c | 139.66$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.66 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…352ebacked Yes | 63c | 130$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.1 | 175 | 32%56 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 111.25$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.52 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 44c | 105$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.51 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 40c | 100.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.18 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab2b…1ecabacked Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6a…db19backed Yes | 57c | 98.7$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.54 | 147 | 19.7%29 W · 118 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +126.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dda…e023backed No | 74c | 97.61$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.38 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 70cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 37c | 80$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.43 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e37…7463backed No | 39c | 80$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked No | 76c | 78.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.82 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 59c | 75.25$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.23 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 20c | 68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.35 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 25c | 62.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.79 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.8 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0594…90a5backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc720…8f88backed Yes | 48c | 49.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed No | 63c | 49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed Yes | 32c | 47.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.59 | 85 | 16.5%14 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe75d…fda7backed No | 62c | 40.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -34%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 34c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 26c | 39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.86 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x031a…3f1abacked No | 74c | 39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked No | 72c | 39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a22…1ccfbacked Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 58c | 32.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe585…eb65backed Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bda…3543backed Yes | 64c | 24.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3de5…c157backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6660…172bbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fc…06f9backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on December 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 40°F or higher on December 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 30-31°F on December 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on December 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on December 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on December 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.