Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on December 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xddbf64358a8a60ea682e10fc62835d359f5a11345e8f67ab6da0f8870cecb2bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,963
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,122
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,963 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 36c | 1,738$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.88 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed No | 76c | 900$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 31c | 700.11$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.73 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb905…1640backed No | 76c | 507.26$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.99 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…fe28backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 2cpaid | +525%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…f74dbacked Yes | 52c | 335$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.3 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 283$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.82 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x227f…41e3backed Yes | 49c | 262.65$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.89 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dda…e023backed No | 80c | 249.22$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.26 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 70cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 17c | 246.39$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.71 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe204…cfb5backed No | 75c | 229.67$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…352ebacked No | 66c | 212$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.08 | 175 | 32%56 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3c…b4b8backed Yes | 49c | 205.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.86 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 199.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.96 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5f…d443backed Yes | 63c | 165.9$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.6 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 29c | 159.66$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.67 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 45c | 140.21$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.63 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 26c | 120$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x08cf…8cbcbacked Yes | 21c | 105$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 107 | 51.4%55 W · 52 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc720…8f88backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…1757backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a29…8b9ebacked No | 45c | 88.46$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.46 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 50c | 85.67$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.48 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked No | 50c | 78.65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.59 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 36c | 77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 49c | 70.86$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.82 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 44c | 54.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.69 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 49c | 53.37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.38 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked No | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0594…90a5backed Yes | 25c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 29c | 49.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbea2…96e8backed No | 72c | 46.9$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 53c | 43.73$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f8…503abacked No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 112 | 28.6%32 W · 80 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc746…5c8abacked No | 55c | 36.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70f7…7ea9backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6a…db19backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 147 | 19.7%29 W · 118 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +126.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe585…eb65backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a22…1ccfbacked No | 74c | 27.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked No | 48c | 26.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked Yes | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on December 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 40°F or higher on December 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 30-31°F on December 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on December 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on December 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on December 28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.