Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 40°F or higher on December 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe39a59a052d4fe726222f4e661cc12819cfd71456c55f6ef59ea05b0e90d5c21
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,510
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,013
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,510 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 2c | 11,559$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.56 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…1bbabacked Yes | 3c | 3,015$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.75 | 121 | 25.6%31 W · 90 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…c0a5backed Yes | 5c | 999.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 6c | 799.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9d…5954backed Yes | 4c | 574.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 4c | 405.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 8c | 400$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08cf…8cbcbacked Yes | 7c | 300$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 107 | 51.4%55 W · 52 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 8c | 283.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 24c | 278.98$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.33 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dda…e023backed No | 74c | 238$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.83 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 70cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe204…cfb5backed No | 74c | 213.28$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.77 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a29…8b9ebacked Yes | 16c | 155.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x227f…41e3backed Yes | 9c | 155$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 7c | 151.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3c…b4b8backed Yes | 23c | 150$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Yes | 32c | 123.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 79c | 92.09$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked No | 78c | 78.65$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 26c | 70.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95ac…d4fcbacked Yes | 29c | 64.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 69c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 158 | 18.4%29 W · 129 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45c1…4a23backed No | 78c | 25.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 66cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 40°F or higher on December 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 30-31°F on December 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on December 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on December 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on December 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on December 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.