Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 82°F or higher on May 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ff825e9b425b4d0bba85956b46512203cc6d6277e66e1ae380bb1d4c56fbb04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,932
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,317
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,932 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 676.56$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.11 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 432.7$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.64 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x840a…63ccbacked Yes | 55c | 362.99$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.99 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…2fadbacked Yes | 72c | 260.62$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.58 | 120 | 68.3%82 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 21c | 256.28$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.78 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e1…c152backed No | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 202 | 31.2%63 W · 139 L | +22.2wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 39c | 199.98$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.99 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 60c | 198.53$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.63 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 28c | 182.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.18 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked No | 34c | 161.89$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.29 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 74c | 154.4$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.55 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 61c | 153.2$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.11 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb5…e19cbacked Yes | 74c | 151.46$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 106 | 17.9%19 W · 87 L | -10.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 28c | 144.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.48 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 77c | 142$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 71c | 131.53$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 28c | 122.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 33c | 105.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 16c | 104.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 66c | 101.31$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.31 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 40c | 85.84$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.44 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5eaa…3561backed Yes | 47c | 79.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.45 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked No | 28c | 79.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 30c | 76.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.72 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 62c | 75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 68c | 73.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…c68cbacked No | 70c | 62.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 36c | 62.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7af6…8dfbbacked No | 70c | 61$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 34c | 58.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…943ebacked No | 28c | 57.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +139.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba9…9c5bbacked No | 49c | 57.86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 55c | 57.84$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.07 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 37c | 56.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 63c | 56.1$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked Yes | 44c | 53.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.04 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 33c | 53.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa52…721bbacked No | 42c | 52.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 31c | 51.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed No | 44c | 49.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked No | 68c | 49.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.87 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 68c | 49.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed Yes | 55c | 49.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked No | 42c | 48.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 25c | 45.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.19 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab59…aba6backed Yes | 30c | 44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 34c | 43.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.96 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 67c | 43.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 56c | 42.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d3…6a09backed Yes | 30c | 40.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc0…1912backed No | 35c | 40.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 161 | 16.1%26 W · 135 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11cb…4f5ebacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9a…10ffbacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 30c | 39.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83bf…2ea6backed Yes | 30c | 39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 43c | 38.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57c5…76c2backed No | 41c | 38.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | -7.5wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…fe40backed No | 30c | 38.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2451…09fabacked Yes | 29c | 38.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 221 | 25.3%56 W · 165 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 72c | 37.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 37c | 37.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 34c | 35.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df3…c0d0backed Yes | 68c | 35.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd10…99b9backed No | 40c | 35.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0594…90a5backed No | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…1c40backed Yes | 29c | 34.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 59c | 33.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 62c | 33.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 57c | 32.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 38c | 32.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 49c | 31.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa921…f0eabacked No | 55c | 31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 93 | 62.4%58 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 30.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…af97backed Yes | 66c | 30.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7175…5a88backed Yes | 73c | 30.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44f7…add9backed Yes | 60c | 30.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 36c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 38c | 27.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…f366backed Yes | 50c | 27.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 55c | 25.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05bc…008abacked No | 56c | 24.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed No | 46c | 23.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe256…0408backed Yes | 60c | 21.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 64c | 20.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 74c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 60c | 18.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…72c0backed No | 68c | 15.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -10.8wins | -0.14per pick | 63cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 82°F or higher on May 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on May 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.