Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on May 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x960bc34e4b8f7f2c57f01bdcefc1bf50275a64774fb9ab74a20d84f29e968faa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,679
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,407
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,679 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 15c | 456.79$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.84 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 248.84$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.61 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 16c | 182.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 26c | 157.33$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.59 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 12c | 147.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 12c | 122.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2b…bf2abacked Yes | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa110…9b09backed Yes | 31c | 80.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -48%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 71.47$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef22…441dbacked Yes | 22c | 69.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 74c | 68.31$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 30c | 65.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 74c | 63.13$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 66c | 62.56$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 77c | 60.86$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e04…67f4backed No | 75c | 54.5$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 66 | 68.2%45 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 24c | 54.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 57c | 51.24$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 29c | 50.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 69c | 46$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 76c | 40.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb2…ad6fbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 163 | 24.5%40 W · 123 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…fe40backed No | 72c | 30.39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 78c | 30.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 72c | 29.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 68c | 29.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7da…138cbacked No | 75c | 28.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.20per pick | 67cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 74c | 26.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 70c | 25.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb545…0d81backed No | 77c | 24.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 75c | 23.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 76c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 76c | 21.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 21.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 76c | 21.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa921…f0eabacked No | 74c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 93 | 62.4%58 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 73c | 20.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 77c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c94…1ff4backed No | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked No | 72c | 15.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 77c | 15.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad0d…8f33backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 121 | 74.4%90 W · 31 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 69c | 14.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 73c | 13.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on May 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 82°F or higher on May 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on May 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.