TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on July 29?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,955
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,341

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,955 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes27c1,494$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.623723.2%55 W · 182 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No63c1,080$679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.6432748.6%159 W · 168 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3500…07f0backed Yes35c935.92$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.92927.6%8 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-36.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6715…9365backed Yes13c599.87$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$807427%20 W · 54 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No76c571.13$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.2521854.6%119 W · 99 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No77c501.63$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.4614959.7%89 W · 60 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes6c396.62$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.347741.6%32 W · 45 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No74c378$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.4926355.9%147 W · 116 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes10c377.24$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6312816.4%21 W · 107 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick11cpaid+67.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No77c310.99$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.7139952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x578d…bbaabacked No77c310.49$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.485957.6%34 W · 25 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+17%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes26c290.12$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.1318342.6%78 W · 105 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed No72c274.76$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.6214126.2%37 W · 104 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-26.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes13c261.41$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8144138.1%168 W · 273 L+27.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes29c249.25$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.532231.8%7 W · 15 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-30.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No66c223.41$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.917952.5%94 W · 85 L-15.0wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-18.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes35c217$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.5432354.2%175 W · 148 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes25c210.12$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.6318662.4%116 W · 70 L+13.0wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+18.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4a6c…e8abbacked Yes11c193.67$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No66c185.68$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.7823551.9%122 W · 113 L-0.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed Yes8c181.91$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6821844%96 W · 122 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes38c156.74$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604748.9%23 W · 24 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes30c151.08$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4518638.2%71 W · 115 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes34c150$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514344.2%19 W · 24 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0c9…eac8backed No64c150$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick53cpaid-41.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes16c132.67$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.598844.3%39 W · 49 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0594…90a5backed Yes8c129.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes30c126.88$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1312040.8%49 W · 71 L+10.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+27.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes41c121.95$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No75c116$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.0436055.3%199 W · 161 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x843e…e477backed No59c111.56$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.74988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.29per pick60cpaid+43%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed Yes21c110$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.154418.2%8 W · 36 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-34.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No78c109.2$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.9152850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa016…67c2backed Yes25c108.62$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272850%14 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-1.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xed22…6450backed Yes24c106$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.621154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca75…0a64backed No76c104.48$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.666847.1%32 W · 36 L-6.9wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-20.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes27c102.6$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.535317%9 W · 44 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-64.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed No77c99.95$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.039558.9%56 W · 39 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcca1…7e1ebacked Yes13c97.7$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.09742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick30cpaid+45.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x59cc…2963backed Yes17c91.84$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes24c86.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4714521.4%31 W · 114 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-41.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No79c81.38$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.4415766.2%104 W · 53 L+0.5wins0.00per pick66cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe584…9157backed Yes26c78.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.322733.3%9 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes31c78$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3516738.3%64 W · 103 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa990…dc90backed Yes27c73.73$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203161.3%19 W · 12 L+5.8wins+0.19per pick42cpaid+39.4%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xf5c0…eb75backed Yes28c73.57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.430%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xda07…62a0backed Yes25c72$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.252231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x885f…7bf9backed Yes28c71.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202045%9 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-20.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No76c71.3$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.8214467.4%97 W · 47 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick66cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9447…48d6backed Yes17c69.44$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1230%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No66c68.16$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.5213155.7%73 W · 58 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes38c68.12$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8127143.5%118 W · 153 L-21.4wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-24.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No66c68.05$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.0532639.3%128 W · 198 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a8d…7688backed Yes37c60.25$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+18.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5710…b854backed Yes40c58.4$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.36540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes28c58.17$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.291,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes26c56.82$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5218035.6%64 W · 116 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No59c56$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.9616051.9%83 W · 77 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes24c53.13$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.757129.6%21 W · 50 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+25.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc3d5…c693backed Yes26c52.23$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.331040%4 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes30c52$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.810837%40 W · 68 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb72d…6ca8backed Yes24c51.7$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.19825%2 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-31.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x234c…90dbbacked Yes39c51.41$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203141.9%13 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No70c50.77$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.2318348.6%89 W · 94 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.811045.5%50 W · 60 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes34c46$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6411839%46 W · 72 L-13.1wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-19.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xffdd…40debacked No75c45.07$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.07366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick72cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No75c43.59$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.713646.3%63 W · 73 L-10.5wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-20.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8779…3eaabacked Yes37c43.36$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x958a…9f65backed No79c43.22$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.963174.2%23 W · 8 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick63cpaid+13.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5749…73abbacked Yes25c43.01$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.64742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-33.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4429…fcbdbacked Yes37c43$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.91520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-61.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No71c42.78$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2523459.8%140 W · 94 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4dec…de48backed No71c42.63$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.22100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+75.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb615…62b9backed No76c42.27$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.143669.4%25 W · 11 L+4.8wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+26.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9428…5cecbacked Yes37c41.01$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.06560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+27.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No64c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.420065%130 W · 70 L+12.7wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x65c7…e100backed Yes28c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.23046.7%14 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+19.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed Yes35c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146043.3%26 W · 34 L-7.0wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-27%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No75c39.33$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.964355.8%24 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes41c39.22$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.083531.4%11 W · 24 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-29.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No79c36.76$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.5834354.8%188 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes34c34$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.566357.1%36 W · 27 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54c8…3082backed Yes30c33.66$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.130%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xae7a…25eabacked No66c33$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.37954.4%43 W · 36 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed No63c32.42$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125749.1%28 W · 29 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No64c32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.6231152.4%163 W · 148 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x754b…d06abacked No64c30.64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.045756.1%32 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc50c…8d41backed No76c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.21353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No63c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.114454.2%78 W · 66 L-9.8wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-13.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No63c27$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.984564.4%29 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No73c26.01$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.124637.4%92 W · 154 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5686…690abacked No73c25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.72100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+51%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd009…91afbacked No74c25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.45250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-32.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed No73c25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.73961.5%24 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed No70c25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.56261.3%38 W · 24 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+1.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No73c21.15$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.74266.7%28 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c3e…5a86backed No62c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.6825%2 W · 6 L-2.9wins-0.36per pick61cpaid-62.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3c18…32c3backed No63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.47955.7%44 W · 35 L-5.7wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-14%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No64c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.25945.8%27 W · 32 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.