World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on July 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34e4b73285cc79e30f3767c79cbee1ce61479646bbd2446869d70b4d1642869d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,720
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,228
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,720 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 171 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 52c | 1,255$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 41c | 1,220$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.49 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 25c | 1,092$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.57 | 149 | 59.7%89 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 42c | 1,072$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.93 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 981.52$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670.5 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 30c | 972.12$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.93 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 12c | 749.56$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.24 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 45c | 695.9$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.32 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6715…9365backed Yes | 44c | 497.46$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.46 | 74 | 27%20 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 50c | 484.65$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.37 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa430…7105backed No | 40c | 418.91$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 7c | 399.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 104 | 14.4%15 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 50c | 373.29$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.48 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 47c | 360$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.8 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 56c | 354.17$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.14 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 64c | 341.82$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.81 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 35c | 323.32$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.32 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 12c | 307.07$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.53 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 44c | 260$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.5 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 66c | 250$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 66c | 249.99$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.99 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 55c | 249.63$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 49c | 242.56$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.73 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea0…85b3backed No | 66c | 229.97$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…e0c1backed No | 44c | 227.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 64c | 221$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.53 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 45c | 218.57$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.3 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.41 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes | 55c | 196.8$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.63 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 17c | 175.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 51c | 170$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.91 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf57…52f2backed Yes | 58c | 166$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.94 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 44c | 161$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.62 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 20c | 159.41$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +9.4wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 49c | 154.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.94 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 62c | 154.47$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.3 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 29c | 152.1$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.92 | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 40c | 142.01$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.01 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 19c | 139.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -5.4wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 51c | 130.97$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.42 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 59c | 122.06$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.63 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 77c | 120$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x799f…2789backed Yes | 80c | 119.06$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 116.59$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.54 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 30c | 115.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed Yes | 66c | 115.1$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.78 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 41c | 115$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.13 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec1…e2e3backed No | 73c | 112.61$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.59 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 33c | 110$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.61 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed Yes | 41c | 109.32$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.29 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 43c | 105$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.15 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 41c | 103.61$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.58 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…d67abacked No | 38c | 101$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 25c | 99.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 59c | 99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.77 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 18c | 98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +5.4wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb252…add8backed No | 52c | 96.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…0dfcbacked No | 38c | 89.7$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 57c | 87.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.36 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 29c | 86.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5710…b854backed Yes | 34c | 85.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 46c | 83.89$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.67 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 29c | 82.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.75 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac0c…739cbacked No | 45c | 82.44$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.77 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 48c | 81.38$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.21 | 157 | 66.2%104 W · 53 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 66c | 79.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.79 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -13.1wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 16c | 77.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 46c | 77.73$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.73 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 52c | 76.75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.84 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 55c | 75.75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.66 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 59c | 75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.98 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 49c | 74.48$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3848backed Yes | 53c | 74.31$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.71 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 61c | 73.55$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.55 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 60c | 72.3$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 52c | 71.3$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.82 | 144 | 67.4%97 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 64c | 71$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.69 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed Yes | 60c | 70.05$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.91 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 55c | 69.74$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.02 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed No | 66c | 69.35$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.77 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 62c | 68.84$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 43c | 67.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 55c | 66.74$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…0f66backed Yes | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 62c | 64.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 39c | 60.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 168 | 34.5%58 W · 110 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 62c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 58c | 56.9$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 60c | 54.79$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 95 | 58.9%56 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed4…7a7dbacked No | 39c | 54.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 53c | 53.57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 107 | 33.6%36 W · 71 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 37c | 53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.23 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 46c | 53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 21c | 52.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 168 | 50.6%85 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…ce8bbacked Yes | 77c | 51.19$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x417f…d9a9backed Yes | 54c | 50.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x859c…6eafbacked Yes | 31c | 50.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on July 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on July 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.