TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Tom Holland appear on Hall H stage at SDCC 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$781
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$736

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $781 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes47c265.69$126 inLost-$126.17445.9%34 W · 40 L-6.8wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-27.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd12f…e85abacked No50c144.98$72 inWon+$73.081776.5%13 W · 4 L+4.7wins+0.27per pick49cpaid+100.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No48c108$52 inWon+$56.4847328.3%134 W · 339 L-32.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-38.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc036…7feabacked No53c58$31 inWon+$27.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b73…174ebacked No53c37$20 inWon+$17.39825%2 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-60.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No52c25$13 inWon+$1287033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3d77…7004backed No53c20$11 inWon+$9.41741.2%7 W · 10 L-3.4wins-0.20per pick61cpaid-33.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No53c20$11 inWon+$9.410830.6%33 W · 75 L-13.9wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-42.9%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed Yes53c20$11 inLost-$10.67032.9%23 W · 47 L-14.8wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-42.5%equal weight33-0.16 edge/pick
0xb431…82ecbacked No53c20$11 inWon+$9.43551.4%18 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c18…32c3backed No53c20$11 inWon+$9.46656.1%37 W · 29 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2415…c70bbacked No53c19.99$11 inWon+$9.4825%2 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-48.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.