Movies · resolved market
Will Chris Hemsworth appear on Hall H stage at SDCC 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf12c0c0ff155936c956730d282093b538a7f70bbf3697e8035d0195e51d2074e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,053
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,053
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,053 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 3c | 522$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 140 | 15%21 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e85abacked Yes | 35c | 336.63$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.58 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +4.7wins | +0.27per pick | 49cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…37e6backed Yes | 49c | 193.93$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.4 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…bfcbbacked No | 35c | 127.34$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.31 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 50c | 120.73$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.44 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x873d…1862backed No | 59c | 77.02$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeed8…35f0backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c8…0af5backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…7004backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.20per pick | 61cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 56cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -5.1wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -5.7wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Chris Hemsworth appear on Hall H stage at SDCC 2026?this page
- Will Anthony Mackie appear on Hall H stage at SDCC 2026?Yes won
- Will Chris Evans appear on Hall H stage at SDCC 2026?Yes won
- Will Florence Pugh appear on Hall H stage at SDCC 2026?No won
- Will Guillermo del Toro appear on Hall H stage at SDCC 2026?Yes won
- Will Hugh Jackman appear on Hall H stage at SDCC 2026?No won
- Will James Gunn appear on Hall H stage at SDCC 2026?No won
- Will Kevin Feige appear on Hall H stage at SDCC 2026?Yes won
- Will Michelle Yeoh appear on Hall H stage at SDCC 2026?Yes won
- Will Pedro Pascal appear on Hall H stage at SDCC 2026?Yes won
- Will Robert Downey Jr. appear on Hall H stage at SDCC 2026?Yes won
- Will Ryan Reynolds appear on Hall H stage at SDCC 2026?No won
- Will Simu Liu appear on Hall H stage at SDCC 2026?Yes won
- Will Taylor Swift appear on Hall H stage at SDCC 2026?No won
- Will Tom Hiddleston appear on Hall H stage at SDCC 2026?No won
- Will Tom Holland appear on Hall H stage at SDCC 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.