AI · resolved market
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $640b on March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x413065e088d9fa59bb0228da43973dc447ba529b3b6310ca0a7f253fe810f5c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $102,785
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $101,491
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $102,785 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 218 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 22c | 7,286$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600.15 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…b09bbacked No | 5c | 2,200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,090 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.95per pick | 5cpaid | +1,900%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ee…a8aebacked Yes | 16c | 2,193$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 21c | 1,637$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,287.89 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 75c | 1,626$1,216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.64 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd1…583fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,517$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.64 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 1,260$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.71 | 101 | 26.7%27 W · 74 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf769…0114backed No | 69c | 1,212$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.02 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0184…23f6backed No | 59c | 980$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.8 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +5.5wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0caa…fb12backed No | 59c | 965$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked No | 56c | 958.24$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.77 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb547…a237backed Yes | 41c | 891$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.31 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe53d…8ab8backed Yes | 41c | 883$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.03 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 75c | 853.15$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.29 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e7…e82fbacked Yes | 80c | 841.64$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6186…c98abacked Yes | 1c | 826.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 43c | 818.59$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.97 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15f7…a018backed Yes | 64c | 776.09$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.45 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa04…27a8backed Yes | 71c | 755.83$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 58c | 737.99$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.83 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62de…e70bbacked Yes | 10c | 699.98$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1c…3a01backed Yes | 73c | 685$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a21…e009backed Yes | 22c | 618.86$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16d2…d007backed Yes | 4c | 610.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7347…fd8cbacked No | 34c | 609$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +196.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 21c | 599.99$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 63c | 597.8$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.94 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 37c | 576.85$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.1 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf29…77d1backed Yes | 21c | 571.57$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5015…0d03backed Yes | 48c | 529.95$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.65 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a8…445cbacked Yes | 47c | 509.72$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90b6…a1b0backed No | 65c | 500.21$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.29 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…717ebacked Yes | 14c | 499.24$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +376.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f21…0041backed Yes | 48c | 495.6$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +187.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec0e…1e4ebacked Yes | 14c | 487.49$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.43 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x227c…ee3fbacked Yes | 23c | 452.87$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.16 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -82.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb442…d6eebacked No | 77c | 440$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x177a…aa8ebacked No | 77c | 427$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.21 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…735dbacked Yes | 23c | 427$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.21 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e78…04a7backed Yes | 21c | 420$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.2 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 28cpaid | -86.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecd7…c7e1backed Yes | 20c | 412.12$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.42 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39a8…7d57backed No | 76c | 400$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x27b0…fc67backed Yes | 42c | 388.17$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5bd…e856backed Yes | 45c | 380.96$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.48 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 19cpaid | +86%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 64c | 379.58$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.82 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed Yes | 14c | 376.01$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.64 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 62c | 352.72$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.43 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f3…2568backed Yes | 69c | 352.17$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabbe…8f37backed Yes | 73c | 350.23$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -8.3wins | -0.33per pick | 57cpaid | -67%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5b76…3024backed No | 10c | 338$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +900%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8907…a996backed No | 75c | 332.98$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc28c…6fb2backed Yes | 61c | 311.83$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.49 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…986abacked No | 78c | 300$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.57 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 46c | 300$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.42 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 20c | 299.95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…e560backed Yes | 48c | 283.05$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.01 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…6efbbacked Yes | 13c | 273.17$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6560…e164backed Yes | 33c | 262.96$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.79 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 45c | 256.77$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.85 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcae6…6a5ebacked No | 63c | 248.23$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a13…4593backed No | 78c | 240$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b29…3c20backed Yes | 58c | 229.98$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2f…7e70backed No | 44c | 228.99$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.29 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 71c | 228.01$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.17 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 15c | 226.52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08e0…bfdfbacked Yes | 24c | 220$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Yes | 19c | 212.81$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 79c | 208.06$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.47 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0706…6ffebacked Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 5c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 59 | 1.7%1 W · 58 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -95.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x239d…f8a5backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7356…0b03backed Yes | 16c | 199.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 53c | 191.2$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.55 | 183 | 23%42 W · 141 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked Yes | 21c | 186.44$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf156…4dc3backed Yes | 27c | 185.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x070d…6ff7backed Yes | 63c | 171.31$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5663…99aebacked Yes | 41c | 171$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.11 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a64…22fbbacked No | 59c | 170.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cda…025fbacked No | 76c | 167.57$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddd…3d9abacked Yes | 52c | 166.67$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90d0…5097backed Yes | 22c | 165$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…fca5backed Yes | 19c | 155.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 39c | 154.59$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.35 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed No | 43c | 152$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.64 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01ef…3039backed Yes | 67c | 149.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +363.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0255…7a19backed No | 79c | 139.24$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab5…5379backed Yes | 37c | 138.24$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 79c | 133.81$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ec…9dadbacked Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 73c | 132.97$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a56…959cbacked No | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fc…49d7backed Yes | 68c | 128.39$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 48c | 125.86$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.98 | 117 | 20.5%24 W · 93 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x401d…ca61backed Yes | 20c | 125.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbef…9ab0backed Yes | 24c | 123.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b61…4adebacked Yes | 74c | 122.26$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a55…dcfcbacked Yes | 68c | 119.24$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1845…4999backed Yes | 24c | 113.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54c5…b259backed No | 44c | 113.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked No | 78c | 112$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $640b on March 31?this page
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $710b on March 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $640b and $650b on March 31?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $650b and $660b on March 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $660b and $670b on March 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $670b and $680b on March 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $680b and $690b on March 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $690b and $700b on March 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $700b and $710b on March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.