TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $640b on March 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$102,785
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$101,491

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $102,785 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 218 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes22c7,286$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,600.155832.8%19 W · 39 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd615…b09bbacked No5c2,200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0901100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.95per pick5cpaid+1,900%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ee…a8aebacked Yes16c2,193$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3403315.2%5 W · 28 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-57%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed No21c1,637$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,287.8912636.5%46 W · 80 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+20%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No75c1,626$1,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.648650%43 W · 43 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bd1…583fbacked Yes4c1,517$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.6460%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes29c1,260$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.7110126.7%27 W · 74 L+0.2wins0.00per pick27cpaid-37.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf769…0114backed No69c1,212$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.025825.9%15 W · 43 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick20cpaid-1.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0184…23f6backed No59c980$578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.82166.7%14 W · 7 L+5.5wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+88.4%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x0caa…fb12backed No59c965$569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.65366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0c6…b50bbacked No56c958.24$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.772166.7%14 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+46.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb547…a237backed Yes41c891$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.311741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe53d…8ab8backed Yes41c883$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.031330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-16.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x97c2…55d6backed No75c853.15$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.291855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3e7…e82fbacked Yes80c841.64$673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$672.69425%1 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick62cpaid+13.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6186…c98abacked Yes1c826.04$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed No43c818.59$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.97407.5%3 W · 37 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick16cpaid-70.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x15f7…a018backed Yes64c776.09$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.45922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa04…27a8backed Yes71c755.83$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No58c737.99$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.8315452.6%81 W · 73 L+9.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+15.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x62de…e70bbacked Yes10c699.98$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c1c…3a01backed Yes73c685$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a21…e009backed Yes22c618.86$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.1250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-27.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16d2…d007backed Yes4c610.51$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7347…fd8cbacked No34c609$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+196.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes21c599.99$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12645738.9%178 W · 279 L-31.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No63c597.8$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.9420148.8%98 W · 103 L+11.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+0.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No37c576.85$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.129430.6%90 W · 204 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf29…77d1backed Yes21c571.57$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5015…0d03backed Yes48c529.95$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.65911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-32.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x87a8…445cbacked Yes47c509.72$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.97333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90b6…a1b0backed No65c500.21$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.292055%11 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x497b…717ebacked Yes14c499.24$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick12cpaid+376.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f21…0041backed Yes48c495.6$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+187.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec0e…1e4ebacked Yes14c487.49$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.43850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-31.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x227c…ee3fbacked Yes23c452.87$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.16137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick18cpaid-82.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb442…d6eebacked No77c440$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x177a…aa8ebacked No77c427$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.211428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x805a…735dbacked Yes23c427$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.211643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+35%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e78…04a7backed Yes21c420$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.21010%1 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick28cpaid-86.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xecd7…c7e1backed Yes20c412.12$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.4240%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x39a8…7d57backed No76c400$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$961833.3%6 W · 12 L-3.2wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-30.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x27b0…fc67backed Yes42c388.17$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.97425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-52.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5bd…e856backed Yes45c380.96$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.48837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick19cpaid+86%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc326…1db1backed Yes64c379.58$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.8225837.6%97 W · 161 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-29.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d61…1fa7backed Yes14c376.01$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.641145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-31.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No62c352.72$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.4313738%52 W · 85 L-6.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-25%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6f3…2568backed Yes69c352.17$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-44.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xabbe…8f37backed Yes73c350.23$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2572524%6 W · 19 L-8.3wins-0.33per pick57cpaid-67%equal weight32-0.17 edge/pick
0x5b76…3024backed No10c338$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.90per pick10cpaid+900%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8907…a996backed No75c332.98$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.9366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc28c…6fb2backed Yes61c311.83$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.49728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick50cpaid-43.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x92eb…986abacked No78c300$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.57616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-78.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x97ea…3363backed Yes46c300$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.425343.4%23 W · 30 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes20c299.95$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.991241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick25cpaid+93.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3de6…e560backed Yes48c283.05$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.011040%4 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5981…6efbbacked Yes13c273.17$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.98540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6560…e164backed Yes33c262.96$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.799040%36 W · 54 L+8.9wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+30.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No45c256.77$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.855848.3%28 W · 30 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcae6…6a5ebacked No63c248.23$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+57.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a13…4593backed No78c240$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.81566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.14per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0b29…3c20backed Yes58c229.98$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd2f…7e70backed No44c228.99$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.29728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-49.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No71c228.01$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.175756.1%32 W · 25 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes15c226.52$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.119818.7%37 W · 161 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-41.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x08e0…bfdfbacked Yes24c220$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.2540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-46.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99ba…6391backed Yes19c212.81$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.926033.3%20 W · 40 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No79c208.06$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.4720544.4%91 W · 114 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-20.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0706…6ffebacked Yes21c200$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-84.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes5c200$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11591.7%1 W · 58 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-95.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x239d…f8a5backed Yes22c200$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+54.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7356…0b03backed Yes16c199.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3240%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes53c191.2$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.5518323%42 W · 141 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-35.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd71a…5e5dbacked Yes21c186.44$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.151520%3 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf156…4dc3backed Yes27c185.01$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x070d…6ff7backed Yes63c171.31$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.11425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+72.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5663…99aebacked Yes41c171$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.11933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a64…22fbbacked No59c170.12$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+70.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4cda…025fbacked No76c167.57$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbddd…3d9abacked Yes52c166.67$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.31425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-67.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x90d0…5097backed Yes22c165$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x950a…fca5backed Yes19c155.67$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.63520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-72.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes39c154.59$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.3557426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39a5…87f2backed No43c152$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.641850%9 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x01ef…3039backed Yes67c149.98$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+363.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0255…7a19backed No79c139.24$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab5…5379backed Yes37c138.24$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.2130%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No79c133.81$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.112636.5%46 W · 80 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72ec…9dadbacked Yes15c133.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No73c132.97$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.445950.8%30 W · 29 L+4.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-1.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8a56…959cbacked No76c131.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8fc…49d7backed Yes68c128.39$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.58333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-51%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No48c125.86$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.9811720.5%24 W · 93 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-60.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x401d…ca61backed Yes20c125.75$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbef…9ab0backed Yes24c123.92$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b61…4adebacked Yes74c122.26$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a55…dcfcbacked Yes68c119.24$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1845…4999backed Yes24c113.63$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54c5…b259backed No44c113.56$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.56366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+31.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x25dc…e33bbacked No78c112$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.642227.3%6 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-21.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.