AI · resolved market
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $700b and $710b on March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb98b0e7834c2020fc432672c6d099a5932290313b2863ba7a9986ead8f19ab2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,590
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,885
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,590 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x765c…dbb6backed Yes | 1c | 2,168$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…5ac8backed Yes | 11c | 1,863$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49bb…aaf9backed Yes | 3c | 1,460$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.74 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6560…e164backed Yes | 5c | 1,207$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.32 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 1,018$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 175 | 4%7 W · 168 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 3c | 964.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72de…a5edbacked Yes | 12c | 814.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec8e…39b0backed Yes | 9c | 753.12$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x493a…f0cfbacked Yes | 3c | 680.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 3c | 621.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 101 | 26.7%27 W · 74 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Yes | 5c | 594.62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +478.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf769…0114backed Yes | 5c | 592.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 4c | 588.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 438.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0755…82d9backed Yes | 9c | 330.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e78…04a7backed Yes | 11c | 326.25$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.89 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 28cpaid | -86.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 4c | 300.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8700…bdbcbacked Yes | 5c | 281.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 222.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9a…f9d7backed Yes | 5c | 219.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 6c | 211.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 6c | 205.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x125e…d1dbbacked Yes | 11c | 93.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $700b and $710b on March 31?this page
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $710b on March 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $640b and $650b on March 31?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $650b and $660b on March 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $660b and $670b on March 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $670b and $680b on March 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $680b and $690b on March 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $690b and $700b on March 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $640b on March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.