TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $650b and $660b on March 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$86,411
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$71,753

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,411 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6560…e164backed Yes8c5,250$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.199040%36 W · 54 L+8.9wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+30.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf769…0114backed Yes11c4,058$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.545825.9%15 W · 43 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick20cpaid-1.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x926a…9bdcbacked Yes1c2,561$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3213…776abacked Yes5c1,826$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe36c…a6f0backed Yes12c1,680$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.61428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-36.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b6b…087cbacked Yes9c1,628$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.0120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6a7a…b556backed Yes6c1,512$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.7720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes8c1,419$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.96407.5%3 W · 37 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick16cpaid-70.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8d97…dfeebacked Yes6c1,265$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x570d…7acbbacked Yes9c1,188$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74be…7558backed Yes9c1,179$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c8e…4e81backed Yes9c1,148$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes12c1,139$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.6410126.7%27 W · 74 L+0.2wins0.00per pick27cpaid-37.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc326…1db1backed Yes1c1,069$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4825837.6%97 W · 161 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-29.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a86…7211backed Yes6c1,002$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecea…7ac0backed Yes6c857$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15f7…a018backed Yes2c774$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.09922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf0e…de47backed Yes5c756$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25dc…e33bbacked Yes19c638.5$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.42227.3%6 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-21.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47eb…8195backed Yes16c594$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.041361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+34.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x62de…e70bbacked Yes27c499.99$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4841…99c3backed Yes5c497$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5015…0d03backed Yes18c480.9$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-32.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0c6…b50bbacked No80c419.99$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.592166.7%14 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+46.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0bd1…583fbacked Yes22c404.14$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.5760%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3de6…e560backed Yes20c389.53$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.21040%4 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes8c357.57$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.932792.5%7 W · 272 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x02cf…712ebacked Yes5c355$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0087…fdfdbacked Yes6c354$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes14c346.85$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.121915.8%3 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-74.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf8fe…8488backed Yes15c340.07$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33db…417abacked Yes4c316.54$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6619040.5%77 W · 113 L+14.4wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+0.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes6c313.72$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.963042%6 W · 298 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-70.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fee…13e6backed Yes16c306.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb28b…3d9bbacked Yes18c278.71$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x97ea…3363backed No77c268.23$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.855343.4%23 W · 30 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes13c216.18$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1128826.7%77 W · 211 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1773…c1febacked Yes15c213.43$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcde0…d27cbacked Yes15c206.11$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick13cpaid+319%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd22c…287dbacked No77c199.93$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.59560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-23.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c4e…b978backed Yes15c197.02$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.282317.4%4 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+478.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5bd…e856backed Yes11c190.65$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.88837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick19cpaid+86%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e35…8fa4backed Yes17c178.32$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca16…f878backed Yes9c176.76$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.441866.7%12 W · 6 L+4.9wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+98.2%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xfdb7…6cd5backed Yes12c172$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.641040%4 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x070d…6ff7backed Yes13c167.76$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.17425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+72.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes17c158.91$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3547938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes10c156.11$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.562977.7%23 W · 274 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-44.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7244…72e4backed No39c150$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.51421.4%3 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick21cpaid-40.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99ba…6391backed Yes9c142.42$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.916033.3%20 W · 40 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes13c138.53$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-53.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdf4…4ab1backed Yes37c134.94$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0521…8ffabacked Yes19c129.75$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+69.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d0c…aea9backed Yes8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44c9…ca41backed Yes25c121.6$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes17c117.76$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0819120.9%40 W · 151 L-20.8wins-0.11per pick32cpaid-57.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x426a…1376backed Yes12c113.54$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.431154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.19per pick36cpaid+65.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5c4a…1b2fbacked Yes15c105.37$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.25520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8361…c592backed Yes20c102.23$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+35.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x129c…0085backed Yes20c101.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x840a…0e9ebacked Yes10c101.33$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x351a…f836backed Yes17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171145.5%5 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-28.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc935…74cfbacked Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.75837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.062321.7%5 W · 18 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-12.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf4f2…eea5backed Yes18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5450%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd744…dee9backed Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x933c…b820backed Yes10c95.29$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-49.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf804…8028backed Yes11c91$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.01425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb83…42d5backed Yes16c90$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.12236.4%8 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-43.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes13c87.5$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7820544.4%91 W · 114 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-20.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2b4…d45dbacked Yes32c82$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.28333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3198…6207backed Yes16c75$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x652c…4229backed Yes29c68.03$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-52.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0b1…1933backed Yes30c66.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2070%0 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No80c61.39$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3113738%52 W · 85 L-6.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-25%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5981…6efbbacked Yes31c59.96$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.88540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13d7…b428backed Yes30c59.12$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-30%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1819…9ec0backed Yes22c54.75$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+236.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeae1…3a2ebacked Yes20c54.62$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd58c…8954backed No73c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.52045%9 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-24%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b5e…332ebacked Yes40c48.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.581428.6%4 W · 10 L-4.1wins-0.29per pick58cpaid-58.1%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No77c44.01$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.9719834.8%69 W · 129 L-23.7wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-43.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x1036…4c62backed Yes30c43.33$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1320%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes27c37.01$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0518323%42 W · 141 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-35.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27a3…f310backed Yes33c36.92$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes45c32.12$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4540712.3%50 W · 357 L-35.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-48.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd6af…532dbacked No77c23.78$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.48560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c71…baafbacked No72c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.63100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed No59c17.01$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.981668.8%11 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick57cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1601…5460backed No78c14.47$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.