AI · resolved market
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $650b and $660b on March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0de803a44c165aab3413e6cae5564d976e76e1c850443d2b14ad61b5391efb63
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $86,411
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,753
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,411 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6560…e164backed Yes | 8c | 5,250$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.19 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf769…0114backed Yes | 11c | 4,058$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.54 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x926a…9bdcbacked Yes | 1c | 2,561$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…776abacked Yes | 5c | 1,826$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe36c…a6f0backed Yes | 12c | 1,680$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.6 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6b…087cbacked Yes | 9c | 1,628$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7a…b556backed Yes | 6c | 1,512$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 8c | 1,419$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.96 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…dfeebacked Yes | 6c | 1,265$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x570d…7acbbacked Yes | 9c | 1,188$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…7558backed Yes | 9c | 1,179$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8e…4e81backed Yes | 9c | 1,148$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 12c | 1,139$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.64 | 101 | 26.7%27 W · 74 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 1c | 1,069$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a86…7211backed Yes | 6c | 1,002$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecea…7ac0backed Yes | 6c | 857$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15f7…a018backed Yes | 2c | 774$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0e…de47backed Yes | 5c | 756$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked Yes | 19c | 638.5$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.4 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47eb…8195backed Yes | 16c | 594$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.04 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62de…e70bbacked Yes | 27c | 499.99$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4841…99c3backed Yes | 5c | 497$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5015…0d03backed Yes | 18c | 480.9$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked No | 80c | 419.99$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.59 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd1…583fbacked Yes | 22c | 404.14$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.57 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…e560backed Yes | 20c | 389.53$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.2 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 8c | 357.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02cf…712ebacked Yes | 5c | 355$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0087…fdfdbacked Yes | 6c | 354$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes | 14c | 346.85$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.12 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fe…8488backed Yes | 15c | 340.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 4c | 316.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 313.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fee…13e6backed Yes | 16c | 306.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb28b…3d9bbacked Yes | 18c | 278.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed No | 77c | 268.23$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.85 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 13c | 216.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1773…c1febacked Yes | 15c | 213.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcde0…d27cbacked Yes | 15c | 206.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +319%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd22c…287dbacked No | 77c | 199.93$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.59 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Yes | 15c | 197.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.28 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +478.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5bd…e856backed Yes | 11c | 190.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 19cpaid | +86%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e35…8fa4backed Yes | 17c | 178.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca16…f878backed Yes | 9c | 176.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +4.9wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +98.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb7…6cd5backed Yes | 12c | 172$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x070d…6ff7backed Yes | 13c | 167.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 17c | 158.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 10c | 156.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…72e4backed No | 39c | 150$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.5 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Yes | 9c | 142.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 13c | 138.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…4ab1backed Yes | 37c | 134.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0521…8ffabacked Yes | 19c | 129.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0c…aea9backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c9…ca41backed Yes | 25c | 121.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 117.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -20.8wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…1376backed Yes | 12c | 113.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 36cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4a…1b2fbacked Yes | 15c | 105.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8361…c592backed Yes | 20c | 102.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x129c…0085backed Yes | 20c | 101.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x840a…0e9ebacked Yes | 10c | 101.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc935…74cfbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f2…eea5backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd744…dee9backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…b820backed Yes | 10c | 95.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf804…8028backed Yes | 11c | 91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb83…42d5backed Yes | 16c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 13c | 87.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b4…d45dbacked Yes | 32c | 82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3198…6207backed Yes | 16c | 75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652c…4229backed Yes | 29c | 68.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b1…1933backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 80c | 61.39$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…6efbbacked Yes | 31c | 59.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d7…b428backed Yes | 30c | 59.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -30%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1819…9ec0backed Yes | 22c | 54.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +236.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeae1…3a2ebacked Yes | 20c | 54.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd58c…8954backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5e…332ebacked Yes | 40c | 48.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -4.1wins | -0.29per pick | 58cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 77c | 44.01$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 198 | 34.8%69 W · 129 L | -23.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1036…4c62backed Yes | 30c | 43.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 27c | 37.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 183 | 23%42 W · 141 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27a3…f310backed Yes | 33c | 36.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 45c | 32.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6af…532dbacked No | 77c | 23.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c71…baafbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 59c | 17.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1601…5460backed No | 78c | 14.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $650b and $660b on March 31?this page
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $710b on March 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $640b and $650b on March 31?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $660b and $670b on March 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $670b and $680b on March 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $680b and $690b on March 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $690b and $700b on March 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $700b and $710b on March 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $640b on March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.