TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $640b and $650b on March 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$62,854
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$57,671

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,854 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6560…e164backed Yes39c6,827$2,630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,197.549040%36 W · 54 L+8.9wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+30.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf769…0114backed Yes9c3,080$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,813.685825.9%15 W · 43 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick20cpaid-1.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e17…5aacbacked Yes52c2,234$1,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,082.14742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick65cpaid-30.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc326…1db1backed Yes35c1,802$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,171.3925837.6%97 W · 161 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-29.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes13c1,433$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,248.855832.8%19 W · 39 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes23c1,243$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$961.0410126.7%27 W · 74 L+0.2wins0.00per pick27cpaid-37.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f21…0041backed Yes17c1,149$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$948.59250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+187.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe155…45afbacked No2c1,080$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62de…e70bbacked Yes21c999.99$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$789.99911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5015…0d03backed Yes16c885.14$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$740.14911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-32.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcde0…d27cbacked Yes12c781.24$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$688.02250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick13cpaid+319%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x15f7…a018backed Yes25c775.64$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$579.97922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3e7…e82fbacked Yes22c759.98$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$592.78425%1 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick62cpaid+13.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9348…8cfbbacked Yes15c723.67$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$616.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.85per pick15cpaid+578.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0bd1…583fbacked No3c578.08$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.460%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5bd…e856backed Yes35c548.15$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.69837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick19cpaid+86%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x25dc…e33bbacked Yes12c539.04$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.492227.3%6 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-21.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5be7…46eebacked No78c531$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.182035%7 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x964c…44acbacked Yes22c531$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.182152.4%11 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+19.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No73c523.9$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.945848.3%28 W · 30 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc28c…6fb2backed Yes44c473.22$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.32728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick50cpaid-43.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes7c444.3$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.072792.5%7 W · 272 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x66d1…b029backed Yes15c429.97$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.97475%3 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.42per pick33cpaid+156.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes8c399.97$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.971241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick25cpaid+93.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes16c398.73$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.21407.5%3 W · 37 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick16cpaid-70.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x44c9…ca41backed Yes15c324.19$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.19714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97ea…3363backed Yes33c300$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2015343.4%23 W · 30 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7676…7b51backed Yes34c294.59$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+196.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes8c269.21$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.121754%7 W · 168 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No75c265.27$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.615950.8%30 W · 29 L+4.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-1.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0521…8ffabacked Yes20c253.79$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.79333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+69.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0524…43cdbacked Yes12c240.77$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.88per pick12cpaid+702.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xca16…f878backed Yes9c238.28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.841866.7%12 W · 6 L+4.9wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+98.2%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xb59a…7f7fbacked Yes24c236.38$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+313.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x497b…717ebacked Yes10c219.35$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.35250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick12cpaid+376.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbac5…7adcbacked Yes8c214.88$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.92per pick8cpaid+1,093.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x30ac…ca76backed No70c211.26$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x426a…1376backed Yes10c210.15$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.11154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.19per pick36cpaid+65.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1778…6052backed Yes26c194.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+288.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd90f…b6dabacked Yes26c192.82$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.82450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+86%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5039…51ccbacked Yes55c192.31$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.83100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+56.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52ce…1da9backed Yes20c184.44$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.913050%15 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xddfe…7c93backed Yes11c181.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.89per pick11cpaid+809.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x974c…cf6abacked Yes28c179.45$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+258.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c64…36b4backed Yes29c177.34$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.72366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+252.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x27bc…6275backed Yes41c170.98$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+144.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes9c163.29$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.592522%5 W · 247 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-74.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x070d…6ff7backed Yes14c161.95$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.49425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+72.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes19c156.36$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.21,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3de6…e560backed Yes31c150.44$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.531040%4 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb91a…648ebacked Yes10c150$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick12cpaid+150%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No75c146.32$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.9572935.5%259 W · 470 L-57.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfd45…c05ebacked No16c133.14$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.942429.2%7 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-37.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82d0…019fbacked Yes16c130$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.2333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+108.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x723d…4b79backed Yes21c124.71$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.52250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+138.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes21c122.25$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.3218323%42 W · 141 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-35.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01ef…3039backed Yes11c120.49$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.49250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+363.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes18c100$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$822321.7%5 W · 18 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-12.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6f08…54d3backed No80c100$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805341.5%22 W · 31 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-19.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f92…db0dbacked Yes11c100$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$891100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.89per pick11cpaid+809.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9907…ca66backed No28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4530%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd744…dee9backed Yes13c100$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.28911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8361…c592backed Yes25c93.41$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.41333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+35.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No77c89.82$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.8919834.8%69 W · 129 L-23.7wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-43.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x5b5e…332ebacked No69c88.17$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.531428.6%4 W · 10 L-4.1wins-0.29per pick58cpaid-58.1%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x1819…9ec0backed Yes15c87.53$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.53250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+236.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No43c86.05$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.6413738%52 W · 85 L-6.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-25%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes14c84.08$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.0557426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddb2…745abacked Yes16c83.74$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.16450%2 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+145.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf2b4…d45dbacked Yes23c80$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.6333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes42c80$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.63742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a07…35b2backed Yes34c80$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.8366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+44.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked Yes16c71.28$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.8717350.3%87 W · 86 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes18c71$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.224157.2%30 W · 385 L-26.1wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-69%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x76e1…6935backed Yes72c69.42$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes32c67.16$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.7719120.9%40 W · 151 L-20.8wins-0.11per pick32cpaid-57.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2997…cf48backed Yes46c59$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.77250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdec2…c914backed Yes20c50$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+400%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9007…70d7backed No73c49.99$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.491145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5981…6efbbacked Yes26c42$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.08540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1ed…ac9cbacked No73c41.12$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-35.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No42c34.14$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4111124.3%27 W · 84 L-16.1wins-0.15per pick39cpaid-54.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xd267…01c9backed No66c33.47$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb98d…045dbacked No73c27.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick73cpaid-50.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf23f…8806backed Yes74c26.98$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c98…727bbacked Yes40c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbff6…db55backed No78c22.28$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3830%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa7d4…26a1backed No64c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x861a…a173backed Yes72c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a45…44b9backed No79c18.89$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No74c17.45$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9113422.4%30 W · 104 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1150…e701backed No61c17.18$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4840%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0245…efd6backed Yes72c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfe0…192abacked No70c15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5933.3%3 W · 6 L-3.3wins-0.37per pick70cpaid-50.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1ccd…510dbacked No79c14.37$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.351050%5 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa870…2cd1backed No80c12.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10560%3 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick79cpaid-23.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.